Connacher Oil & Gas Ltd CLLZF

RE: Short Position

[strzelin]

Thanks for posting the CLL short position.
Not much change here in last two weeks.

Hers is some question for the board.

1. Can anybody advice how you can you short the Canadian stock which is trading bellow $5. All discount brokers including E-Trade ,TD Broker will not let you do it .

2. A lot of posters repeat  conspiracy theory about going long with the CLL convertible and shorting the common share. Can anybody show the calculation that this transaction may be profitable. I may be dumb. I try several possibilities and I can not find the trade which is  profitable based on the CLL SP performance.

3. Moog you said in your post : I know, Strzelin and others have posted the numbers to show the valuation isn't out of line...

I enjoy you posts as always but I have to make small correction here. Last thing in my mind is to show that CLL is properly valuated by market. I am not that smart. I can look to CLL cash flow based on the projected production numbers and  average weighted monthly commodity prices .

The last thing I would know is how will the market interpret the  CLL numbers and adjust the CLL SP accordingly .
LOOK at professional annalists. They have no clue how  to evaluate the CLL.
Some of the them going for the Cash Flow evaluation model (multiple X  7 to 10) (O&G producer model).
Some of them using the NAVPS (0 to 20% discount to NAVPS) model. And others will evaluate CLL as the integrated producer (very low earnings multiples due to deprest refinery profits in US and Canada).

Personally I like the CLL to be pure oilsand play with the long  producing assets 10,000 to 40,000 bbl/d at $150,000 per daily flow ( $6 at 10,000bbl/d production and times 4 ($24 at 40,000bbl/d production).
IMO the integrated Model (promoted by management)  is very bad for the CLL share holders.To much confusion in the evaluation.
JUREK