Takeover Valuation One way is to examine recent takeovers in the oil sands patch.
OPC was recently taken out for $2.1 billion or about $5 per barrel of bitumen in its reserves .
OPC was producing 9500 bpd at the time, and have no conventional production nor a refinery nor a cogen plant.
It was also in creditor protection so it had little negotiating power, as it debts were nearly $2.7 billion and it couldnt asnwer its cash calls.
CLL has 510 million barrels in its 2 P reserves.
Using OPC's takeover value of $5 per barrel of 2P bitumen, CLL would be valued at about $2.5 billion.
Remove $950 million in debt, and the debt free equity value would be about $1.5 billion or about $3.25 per share.
Thats a huge increase from here, but points up just how undervalued this stock really is.
I doubt that we shall get over $3 per share, but $2 certainly seems to be a realistic value for all of these assets and over $1 billion in annual revenue.