Did not consider the finance charges/PabloDid not consider the finance charges - $30MM in Q4....ouch/Pablo
In addition to financial charges you did not consider Maintenance (or production sustainability) Capex not included in the operational expenditure which is $9 million ($36 million annually).
And then you have G&A quarterly expenses of $8.5 million and $10 million loses on Oil and F/X hedges.
If you add all you will have:
$57.5 million expenses against $39.5 million netbacks
Cash loss of $18 million.
Even if they can get lucky on hedges they will operate with net losses in times when CLL enjoyed one of the highest realized bitumen prices ever. February bitumen prices are ~10% lower then in Q4/2011 and so far March prices are 20% lower.
Remember , CLL is now in the Pre-payout royalty regime of ~6% rate. Next year sometime ~50% production (POD1) will move to the post-payout rate of 32 to 34% which will increase net loses.
It would be nice if they could start to buy back their debt or as you suggested. Unfortunately they are short of cash and will have to scramble (use their 6.5% interest credit line) to buy back $100 million convertible in June. Their cash reserves dropped now to about $80 to $90 million.
See my post on agora board:
https://agoracom.com/ir/Connacher/forums/discussion/topics/523188-thursday-march-15/messages/1660249#message