RE: Comparing CLL/MEG/Q1 numbers Good post Pablo.
Just a few comments:
1. MEG's Christina Lake plant is consider as a one of the best SAGD plant in the world. Their utilization rate (actual production to design capacity) is above 100%. CLL's Plants are producing below 70% despite hundred of million dollars spent on improvements (pumps, co-generator, etc) and not comercialy proven application of new technologies. So far CLL management spend $2 billion (in debt and equity issue) with no results to show.
Main reason for it (beside the competence of the management) is the low quality of the oilsand reservoir. This is why after 7 months of open books nobody is interested to buy this company.
2. $30 netbacks you are referring to are the Operational Netbacks. More important one, CLL's Corporate Netbacks are negative at the present bitumen prices.
In Q1/2012 (to be release soon) CLL was selling their bitumen about $4 below their TOTAL Cost including G&A, Interest Expenses, Maintenance Capital, ETC...
Their Total cost is ~ $54/bbl. They will report Q1 Average Realized Bitumen Price ~$50/bbl. April Bitumen price dropped to $43/bbl, $10 below CLL Total Cost.
Q1/2012 was another disappointing quarter for the shareholders.
3. The long term debt is $900 million (not an adjusted $856 million). $100 million convert (at 4.75%) will be partly transfer to 6.5% credit line showing no difference in the interest charges which will stay in the excess of $80 million per year. Total debt will be higher then before last year restructuring exercise.
Remember they had $112 million cash in January which was suppose to be used to pay the convert. The cash was depleted by February interest installment ($38 millions) and Q1 losses. In last 12 months they sold their non core assets for well above $100 million. All is gone to pay for the" life support line".
There was a fundamental reason this stock was trading at 40 cents before the takeover rumor.