Petro One Energy Corp CUDBF

RE:Money Talks.....

[trew733]

They have drilled 7 wells on what they must have figured were their best prospects and spent something like nine and a bit million dollars (with rounding) - and have a total of two net wells averaging a little less than 15 bopd with a (very) high water cut - as long as they do not produce them steadily that is - when the water cuts go up and the oil cut down...

As well it seems that the ARC well at Bromhead fizzled out without reaching anything more than barely paying itself out? (POP did OK as they had all the reward - the 10% GORR - and none of the risks - the drilling, completion and operation costs!) ARC dropped their farm in option on the remaining land there and just kept the producing quarter while licking their wounds?

It was also revealing to see that the Frobisher beds had become tight and nonreservoir where they drilled their 11-29 Rosebank test well - and that even though the Alida produced a little oil - it was basically an uneconomic ocean skimming operation?

As for the South Reston Lodgepole - what the heck do they expect to get from something with 10.3% porosity, a 51% water saturation and a 0.63 mD (maximum?) permeability? It does not matter that there is the scent of a hydrocarbon there in that Waulsortian mound - its basically over half full with water in most of the available pore space! (The oil is just the stain and the smell left behind on all the tighter rock perhaps).

The Koreans are in for an interesting ride methinks? I shall not even begin to pass judgement on the Viking prospects at Milton where over six million dollars have been spent to establish that the main Viking conglomeate is a gassy and oily water reservoir? (And for upside they are planning to drill where there is no conglomerate - in that streaky tight silty sandy laminated shale part of the section in order to avoid that problem for future wells? Yes the stuff that will barely put out more than a barrel or two a day of very high GOR - and still wet - oil on a vertically drilled and highly stimulated well...)

Hmmmmm!

I note with even greater interest that the management has repriced some 6+ million options down from 40 cents to 31 cents and stretched them out to July the 31st 2024 as an expression of their supreme confidence in the success of the company. Nice to do if you have the chutzpah to get away with it!
 

RE:RE:One little detail... (Fixed for the formatting foul up).

TimTimTim - you have it all wrong!

Can't you see that I am simply having fun with all this now - I have said my piece - I may rise to the odd well cast fly from here on in - but there is really not much more for me to say now until some wells get drilled and the results come back?

If the company actually has "the goods" then the drilling - if there is any - will prove it. N'est ce pas?

And if that happens - and I am completely wrong - I'll never be able to show my sorry cyber self on any forum again.

If that happens - and I am completely right - I'll enjoy the Pyrrhic victory - I will have made no money - I will have lost no money and those left with the worthless shares will simply have to look in the mirror and say "I was warned."

If the Korean deal goes through - these POP guys will get "The Most Brilliant Oilmen of the Year Award" - whether or not they actually have anything - and the SP will go through the roof before it thuds back on the floor again.

If the deal goes through - and the Koreans pony up the drilling funds - and by some miracle the first wells come on gangbusters and exhibit little to no decline over the next few months the SP will go through the roof and keep on going... (Because the "money" will keep on coming and a whole bunch more wells get drilled and there will be oceans of cash flow for everyone! Right?)

If the deal does not go through - and the Koreans walk - paying a non performance penalty, some kind of break fee or whatever - then what are the chances for getting a new partner then?

If the Koreans renegotiate the deal - take a more cautious approach to this whole "opportunity" then what does that say about what they called due diligence in the first place?

There are many outcomes here both with the deal itself - how it is or isn't restructured to align with new realities - and how the drilling results may play out. However the drilling results contains  both known knowns as well as a few known unknowns to borrow a Rumsfeldianism. The results will have some probablistic outcome and basically the more optimistic end of that probability spectrum is a low probability event - the more pessimistuic outcome is a much more high probability event.

Thats just the way it is my friend - that is not me talking - that is the verdict of the best there is in the Canadian oilpatch delivering their verdict each and every year over the past two to three decades - decades during which they have picked over these lands like vultures picking a carcass clean.

In the words of Bob Dylan - "It aint me babe? It ain't me you're looking for babe."

No I have no axe to grind with anyone in the Company - my axe is firmly aimed at the middle men who show absolutely no remorse here delivering the customers a proverbial dead budgie... all the while crooning about its "Beautiful plumage."