TSX:DCBO - Post Discussion
Post by
retiredcf on May 03, 2024 8:36am
TD
Currently have a $65.00 target. GLTA
Q1/24 PREVIEW: EXPECTING SOLID EXECUTION TO CONTINUE
THE TD COWEN INSIGHT
We have been impressed by Docebo's strong execution which we expect to continue into 2024. We expect Docebo's push upmarket and into the public sector to continue being a key growth driver. This should support solid top-line growth through new customer wins, cross- selling, and up-selling, while expanding EBITDA margin from operating leverage.
Event
Q1/24 Results: Thursday, May 9, 2024, after markets close.
Conference Call: Friday, May 10, 2024; 8:00 a.m. ET; 646-960-0169 or 1-888-440-6849. Conference ID: 8722408.
Impact: NEUTRAL
We forecast total revenue of $51.2mm, up 23.6% y/y in cc. We forecast $48.4mm
of Subscription revenue and $2.8mm of Professional Services revenue. We expect Subscription revenue growth of 4.2% q/q, given the $12.5mm of annual recurring revenue (ARR) added last quarter. ARR is expected to be $205.1mm, up 24.4% y/y in cc. We forecast EBITDA margin expanding to 13.5%, up from 5.3% y/y, or EBITDA of $6.9mm, up from $2.2mm y/y. We believe that the company can continue to expand EBITDA margin to the mid-teens range in 2024 and reach 20% exiting 2025, despite continued investments to address the enterprise and government verticals, such as FedRAMP.
KPIs continue positive trend. Last quarter, ACV of $52k, up 12% y/y, continued trending higher driven by more large customers. Customer count grew 11% y/y to 3,759 and deals >$100k accounted for more than 56% of the ARR won. We are looking for this trend to continue.
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