GREY:DGCRF - Post by User
Post by
SurfForWealthon Nov 26, 2003 11:25am
357 Views
Post# 6701098
New investor
New investorGreetings! I watched the CEO on Robtv this morning...twice. After researching the company & crunching some numbers, I decided to take a position in the stock ($1.95-$1.97). I will summarize the story as I see it...please correct me if I am wrong.
They have no debt, have $4.7M in cash (July 31), SE $5.5M, 29M shares, MC of $58M ($2.00). For FY2004 (Oct 31) as per interview, they have expenses of $3-4M , should get product revenue of $3-3.5M from 2 products including 1st generation of uPM3, have already received a cash payment from Gen-Probe of $3.9M (Cdn). Gen-Probe will pay for further product development using their own technologies, expecting to bring a second generation version of uPM3 to market in about 2 1/2 years. The product is non-invasive & could eventually dominate a market currently worth $1.5B USD due to it's strong advantages over current methods. CUR will get 8% royalties on the first $50M in sales & 16% after that. The 60 day average daily trading volume is 264K shares...pretty good liquidity for a micro-cap stock.
Questions....Will the second generation product require FDA approval & is that time included in the 2 1/2 years? I take it Gen-Probe will be responsible for manufacturing the second gen product & the royalties will be paid to CUR with minimal associated expenses. Am I correct? Therefore the net margins & ROE will be huge! Am I missing anything? Is there a realistic chance that the CUR pipeline could produce further revenue generating products over the next 2 years? Does anyone see any reason for further stock dilution? Cheers!!!