RE:RE:RE:back to workDon't forget there is still the Bank of Bob.
I am not saying he is willing to risk more of his own money, but if DMM can go cash flow positive at Zaruma, Bob can cover the Vertex loan for at least a month if not more. Will he? I don't know. It is a lot of money and a big gamble, but Bob has more invested here than anyone. And DGF w/ Green Oil going online will basically solve this company's cash problems and be a major windfall for shareholders. Or we could lose it all if he can't make it work.
As far as AISC goes, remember that some components of the AISC are not relevant in their current position. Example: depreciation is not relevant right now - cash flow is. Taxes/royalties to the government? Well, the Ecuadorian government was involved in brokering the deal with the workers. Why bother if they're going to just force the company to fold on unpaid royalties? It's possible the labour ministry and the revenue ministry are working independently here, but I don't see a point in the government brokering this labour deal if they intend to shut DMM down. It's also not in their interest to shut down Dynasty when they're promoting mining as heavily as they have been for the past few years. Further, if the company is to be believed and contract miners will produce higher grades, that will aid in Zaruma becoming cash flow positive.
I think Bob's Plan A is to to get DGF rolling, which still needs the road before it generates any cash flow. In this plan, he needs some short-term cash to weather the Vertex loan or get a loan extension. Where does he get that? Bank of Bob? Sell Jerusalem? Sell non-core Zaruma concessions? Equity raise? Streaming deal? Government of Ecuador loan (longshot, but I don't think it's completely outside the realm of possibility)?
I think his Plan B is to sell out the company. I'm sure he's received low ball offers for the entire lot and he's rejected them as it will wipe out shareholders (e.g. him).
I also don't believe it is in Vertex's interest to close on the loan. Yeah, they'll get their capital and interest back, but even if they wait it out they're still going to get everything back. I think they are the senior creditor here and first in line in any bankruptcy, meaning the only way Vertex doesn't get everything + interest back in the end is if they believe the total asset value of everything DMM has is worth less than $5 million at auction.
Who actually believes that? So Vertex can wait it out secure in knowing they're getting paid no matter what. If they wait, their shares and options are also worth something. And if they agree to extend, they will get more warrants (I'm sure). So really, Vertex's only reason to force the loan issue is if they really want to deploy that $4 million + interest elsewhere (e.g. opportunity cost). There is something to opportunity cost, but extending the loan, getting Zaruma cash flow positive and DGF starting production gives them way more value on their equity in the company. I'm sure any loan extension comes with a bunch of warrants, but it will be worth it for shareholders.
Still here with all my large share position - I have not sold any. Dumb? Maybe, we'll see. I'm holding out until the end (or the new begining). If the company survives until DGF is online, then it'll have been worth it.
Either way, I hope londry was short and lost his shirt today.