My view on EarthFirstEarthFirst is in the early stages of development and its ultimate value will depend on its ability to execute effectively on its planned roll out of various projects in its pipeline. Having said that, I do not believe there is any evidence at the moment that development plans are awry. Admittedly the estimated Dokie 1 costs were higher than anticipated (raised from $325M to $360M)and the expected production at bit lower (by 2.3%), but I do not see these issues as sufficient reason to merit the recent dramatic selloff. Am I missing anything here?
If I am right, it seems to me that EarthFirst shares, with what I calculate to be a book value of between $1.50 and $1.75, is selling at firesale prices. What has changed since the IPO shares were sold in December for $2.25? This selloff just doesn't make sense to me. What do others think?
In any case, I have been buying steadily in the last few days, in spite of the price falling. I am aware of the caution that one should not try to catch a falling knife, but at the moment I think the knife is falling needlessly, so I have been buying in spite of the risk of further share price reductions. I believe, at the moment, that these prices will look very good in a few years when the company is more mature. I see EarthFirst as something like an early stage Canadian Hydro Developers (KHD). Unless it does not execute properly, it is just a matter of time, in my view, before this company is worth at least a few dollars per share.