TSX:GSY - Post Discussion
Post by
retiredcf on Aug 11, 2023 12:03pm
TD
Maintain their $165.00 target. GLTA
goeasy Ltd.
(GSY-T) C$131.00
Q2/23: Expect to Achieve High-End of 2023 Loan Growth Guidance Event
goeasy reported Q2/23 adjusted EPS of $3.28 (up 16% y/y) versus our estimate of $3.23 (consensus: $3.17). The EPS beat was driven by higher-than-expected loan growth and revenue yield as well as better-than-expected charge-offs. The fully- drawn weighted-average cost of debt remains manageable at 5.9% (4.9% in Q2/22). Adjusted ROE was strong at 24.2%.
Impact: POSITIVE
goeasy reported a strong quarterly result characterized by impressive loan growth (to higher credit-quality customers), stable credit losses, and an improving efficiency ratio. We take a closer look at these factors below.
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Loan growth was strong with balances up 7% q/q and 35% y/y (above our estimate and management's guidance range). The company is now expecting to finish 2023 at the high-end of its guidance range ($3.4bn-$3.6bn; $3.2bn as of Q2/23). We believe this is very achievable as the company continues to experience healthy demand across products and channels.
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Credit was solid with a net charge-off ratio of 9.1% (our estimate: 9.3%) vs. 8.9% last quarter and 9.3% last year. Stable credit performance reflects underwriting enhancements and improved quality/mix of the portfolio. Management targets a net charge-off ratio of 8.0%-10.0% in 2023E and 2024E.
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Revenue yield was down ~25bps q/q and ~390bps y/y (much better than our estimate). We believe higher pricing on lower-risk products helped alleviate pressures from shifts in the portfolio mix.
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The efficiency ratio has shown consistent improvement over the past several years (31.2% in Q2/23 vs 40%+ approximately two years ago), showcasing the scalability of the platform and improved operating leverage. We expect this trend to continue in the near- to medium-term.
TD Investment Conclusion
We like goeasy for five primary reasons: 1) the company's unique position within the Canadian financials space, in that it is a growth company exhibiting a superior ROE; 2) the significant opportunities for continued growth in its current market and new verticals and potential geographic expansion; 3) credit risk is well-managed; 4) potential for additional acquisitions to further boost growth; and 5) track record of rewarding shareholders via dividend increases. Additionally, management has a strong track record of meeting or exceeding guidance; our estimates largely fall within guidance ranges.
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