RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Mongolians dependence on OT The way you work those numbers is significant, no question.
However it will depend upon the case law for the appraisal remedy and the onus of proof and timing of permitted evidence. I suspect the only evidence supporting an appraisal permitted is as it stood at the time of valuation - ie, the delay in adjudication doesn't open a window for later information. So, for example, if some huge drill hit upped the value of OT considerably over the winter ... irrelevant and excluded, works the other way as well if there was some unexpected black swan event that hurt the mine economics. Like Lift 2 extension - it really surprised me how little discussion there was a,omg TRQ shareholders about the reliability of the mineral reserve numbers and whether the stoppage of exploration at HNE had suppressed the entire OT valuation.
i agree TD's long-term $3.50 is too low and said so at the time and ever since. But how big a lift you could argue and how small the corresponding offsets of inflated costs ... ??
Maybe they go no further than just negotiating a premium, and if they do adjudicate, whether we will ever hear about it,, who knows at this stage.
IF, a big IF, Rio was ever interested in scooping ETG for a considerable premium to market (hold the line, ETG management!) it does make sense Rio might want to defer until their potential liability to Pentwater and the dissenters is fixed.
And if Rio elected to see how the arbitration shook out, as in they were willing to accept the results however they came, then we obviously wait for the panel's decision. There should be no appeal as the normal arbitration set-up has prohibitions on judicial appeal or interference except for gross violations of jurisdiction - which normally might mean "patently unreasonable or irrational." That is a tough nut to crack, so generally commercial arbitration decisions should stick. THEN the issue is back to the troublesome question of the extent of the Lift 2 ore body. It's bigger ... much bigger methinks!
I'll just keep humming "I'm a Believer" by the Monkees while it all gets sorted out. CU up again today on the spot market!
cg