A few comments Wow - last Monday I saw the volume increase in FIS so I went and had a look at the SW news release which said "See also V.AMW". When I read the news and saw that AMW only had 13 mil shares OS I just about fell out of my chair and bought as much as I could - in the 48 to 55 cent range. I was buying again on Thurs and again first thing this morning. I actually wish the news had not come out this morning since I would rather have been buying in the 80 cent range than in the 1.15 range as was the case just after the open today. I would not consider selling one share below $3.00, and even that would place a paltry $40 mil cap on this play.
What really got me thinking was reading all the informative posts on this bb so thanks so much for those who added so much. I would imagine that this board will become a gong show over the next few weeks so we should all take a deep breath.
The real thing that got me revved up today was in relation to the arb that is forming when you compare FIS to AMW. I mean even today FIS was up 11 cents, but when you factor they have 10 times more shares os than AMW - every penny FIS goes up AMW should go up 10 cents. So AMW had a market cap increase of $6.6 mil today whereas FIS had a market cap increase of $13.75 million!!! And AMW owns half the project. Talk about an arb opportunity!!!
Putting things further into prospective:
Since the discovery, AMW has risen from 20 cents to $1.36 for a market cap increase of (13 mil shares os) * ($1.36-$0.20) = $15 million.
Fis has risen from 35 cents to 61 cents for a cap increase of (125 mil shares os) * ( 0.61 - 0.35) = $32.5 million!!!! The arb at present would be to short FIS and buy AMW - we have a ton of catching up to do!!!
The only potential argument to this Arb would be that a financing is already in the works for AMW - quite possibly arranged today which might explain why it backed off from $1.45 to $1.35. Even then - you can bet that they will only raise a minimal amount and that any financing will be already all gone and very carefully placed - as in no Cannacord or any Howe street firms for that matter.
I am very thankful we have a fellow like Ben Ainsworth who has been there before in charge of the ship, and this time he has a very tight vehicle to work with which was not the case with HAT. I am sure that there will be so much demand that any round will be very carefully placed and Ben will make sure that no senior or potential suitor gets access to any shares so as to ensure that no entity has a leg up on any future bidding war. I am sure that any current round should be quite minimal - just enough to ensure that this winters program that is now obviously expanded is fully funded. With the shallow depth, the boulder fields and the promising early results, this really has the potential to be a large deposit...
So before you start bashing and wondering when the gap will close - I suggest this is obviously a breakaway gap and that AMW needs about a double from these levels before we catch up to FIS.
Good luck to all longs and DO NOT SELL ANY PAPER. You will regret it if you do...
Jandd