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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum Alpha Minerals Inc ESOFD

GREY:ESOFD - Post Discussion

Alpha Minerals Inc > DILUTION
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Post by patientriskyinvestor on Oct 03, 2013 12:52pm

DILUTION

Why are they doing a private placement NOW?  It makes no sense at all.  With the underwriter allottment you are talkiing about almost 8.625 mill shares, or just over 5% of current FCU.  The participants will not get any spinco shares and if the merger is NOT approved get their money back with interest.  There is no need for extra cash at this time, unless Dev has wasted a ton on other properties b/c the joint cash position of the merged entity is more than adequate to get through the next drill season and in fact probably thru the summer and a fall and winter as well.  My guess is this is a ploy by Dev to get voting shares into the hands of his cronies so that once the merger goes thru, the former AMW shareholder's don't end up with control.  My guess, and I hope I am wrong, is he has lined up a bunch of his cronies to buy the shares since he doesn't want former AMW shareholder's stopping him from selling the combined company as fast as possible in Jan.  AMW management and shareholders have generally been a much more patient group of investor's and want to see the results of this winter's drilling and a possible recovery in the uranium market before any hasty attempt to sell PLS.  When the drill program is proving $2-3 mill/ hole of uranium at a cost of $150,000 a hole, why would you sell in a hurry.  I am deeply suspicious of the tiing of this placement and the motives for it.  I am looking forward to reading the definitive letter of intent and the merger agreement in fine detail and wondering what other "gems" the agreement contemplates.  I am deeply suspicious of the motive given Dev's recent media comments and his reputation and propensity to look for the "next deal'.
Comment by letsgetready on Oct 03, 2013 2:18pm
the deal in contingent on the merger happening, so the dilution is only just over 2% on 350 million shares.
Comment by bridgetonowhere on Oct 04, 2013 11:06am
It's no secret that FCU's business plan is to find a deposit, prove it up, sell it and move on.  Dev has publicly stated that countless times.  The main complaint from some AMW shareholders with that plan, it seems, is that PLS will be sold before it's entirely proved up.  What you never hear from those same shareholders though, is their estimate of how many years it ...more  
Comment by LoneStar1 on Oct 04, 2013 11:25am
As I have stated in the past HAT took  approx. 3 years from initial discovery (2008) until buyout (2011). Therefore, I was hoping for a similar timeframe.  Initial discovery hole (November 2012) buyout some time after 2015 winter drill program. Rationale: 1)  Allow price of uranium to begin recovery. 2)  Much clearer picture of the pounds in the ground. Your point re: how ...more  
Comment by bridgetonowhere on Oct 04, 2013 12:53pm
3 years isn't an unreasonable length of time, but as in any business enterprise - time is money.  As the time frame extends out, more share offers need to made which results in more dilution for longer term holders.  For that reason, I support the plan to raise enough money to finance a 5 rig, 100 hole winter program and prove up the resource as quickly as possible.  A higher ...more  
Comment by Solver on Oct 04, 2013 1:57pm
Selling  PLS, before a REASONABLE  proving up of the resource deposit would be a severe slap in the face for both AMW and FCU share holders.....especially the longs.   I own both.  I have read both AMW and FCU posts and never came across a 20 year time frame for PLS.  Fear mongering at best. There is nothing to stop any share holder from selling at any time that they ...more  
Comment by tiger6301 on Oct 04, 2013 3:41pm
Hi Solver, I couldn't agree more with you.  I generally believe most of AMW shareholders are long, and on the management side with a long view of the project value, and trying to realize the maximum value of the lifetime oppurtunity. While the FCU management are more or less like a car salesmen, they just want to make a quick profit, then move on.  FCU's management are luck ...more  
Comment by bridgetonowhere on Oct 04, 2013 4:01pm
HAT's deposit isn't fully proved up.  Cigar Lake's deposit isn't fully proved up yet either.  So there is little reason to believe that it will not take some 20 years for PLS's reserve to be fully proven.  Further, the threat of a take-out offer will support FCU's share price after it merges with AMW and if an offer for PLS is going to be rejected, let's ...more  
Comment by wintersun10 on Oct 04, 2013 4:10pm
if you let it be known that you are not going to look at any bids for the next five years, well there go your share holders out the door. it just makes sense to pretend there are buyers just fighting to get in, that is how you as a "used car salesman" drive up the price. better than driving away your share holders.
Comment by Solver on Oct 04, 2013 5:55pm
The word is REASONABLE!  No property on earth can be proven up to the last ounce?!  There will always be a "little something" missed.   And  In fact that is the expectation of the buyer. Also nobody said that we shouldn't look at possible offers.                  ...more  
Comment by bridgetonowhere on Oct 05, 2013 2:53am
@Solver - Actually, making personal attacks on Dev's character is pretty well the same as rebuffing a take-out offer Dev would endorse.  I mean it's difficult to argue that Dev will prematurely sellout FCU for his personal benefit and then at the same time argue that reasonable offers should be looked at.  That's the contradiction it appears that you've advanced but in ...more  
Comment by Solver on Oct 05, 2013 9:55am
Your point " as it's the major shareholders who hold the power and will ultimately decide on an offer's fate" is right on the money. There is no attack on Dev's character, he is obviously a capable person within his area of expertise. His actions and dealings, however, will speak for themselves in the future. Let's make it clear: I oppose an early buy out before we have ...more  
Comment by bridgetonowhere on Oct 05, 2013 1:14pm
@Solver - I'ts helpful for some readers, I believe,  that you've clarified any misunderstanding that your - "used car salesman mentality" and "we need better management with knowledgable decision making abilities" - remarks may have created. Moreover, it's probably important to understand that risk factors influence the price of stocks and they don't trade ...more  
Comment by Nosleep on Oct 07, 2013 9:59am
if that is the case and you truly believe it, then you should be buying hand over fist at 1.19 and waiting for the easiest money you would ever make in your lifetime. Even if you think you aren't going to get max value, how could you be upset at a chance to make even a 30 percent premium? /shrug. If you can't beat em, join em. Nosleep
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