To Joseph_k: in yellow, my comments.Joseph_K wrote: Well I'll give you credit for making a spread sheet and getting this downgraded version of stochhouse to display it.
My comments below:
I can tell you that you are going to be way, way off on your revenue guesses. You are probably starting out a fair bit too high for Q4 2016, and after that, pure speculation.
1) Refresh my memory Bruceforever, haven't revenues been declining quarter after quarter for a while now? I haven't said that. I said revenues declines year after year since 2013.
2) What news makes you think they will increase in Q4? Heck, what news makes you think they will increase in any quarter over quarter in 2017? Well, if you see...4Q had always been the best ones. For example, in q4-2013 were $673k, 4q-2014: 316k and 4q-2015: 402k. This brings me to think, that 4q-2016 should be better than 3q-2016, and they should improve annual sales during 2016 (being flat) (This would be a no decrease for first time since 2013)
3) What makes you think that Q4 revenues will be 32% higher than they were in Q3 when they were just over $250,000? See above. The average sales in 4 quarters.
4) Unless I missed the news, I see no reason to believe that revenue will do anything but keep declining, or stay at this level +/- 10%? at best. Well if you think investing more than 3 millions in research is not enough to improve sales, then I really don't know why you can not be optimistic in yours spresd sheet like me.
5) Having said that, if SICPA were to actually land a fuel marking deal in a semi-large country, or if Eurocontrol were to actually make a sale or two of XwinSys, then the tables would turn. At that point I'd expect your revenue guesses to be quite low. I agree with you in that point. But do you really know something about Sicpa and into which decision are them right now? I don't. And about Xwinsys, the last time Bruce Rowlands talked about it (november interview) he said that Xwinsys commercialization shoud begin in "6 months or so". This is why I was increasing revenues during 2017 and some Croptimal sales like he said.
6) Make several XwinSys sales and that could be the new driver of this stock going forward. Make none, and the company has just flushed cash building something they couldn't find buyers to sell it to profitably. Of course, I agree.
7) I think EUO is pretty evenly balanced on the risk / reward scale at the current price. When that balance tips, the share price will move dramatically higher or lower depending on the reason for the tip. Burning a chunk of the remaining cash with no revenue bump will tips the scales (share price) lower. Possibly a lot lower by year end. A big SICPA win or XwinSys sale(s) could tip the scales much higher. By the way, don't count on ANYTHING else having a material impact on revenue in 2017. A SICPA win can make the declining Xenemetrix sales start going up again. XwinSys sales can lead to (unknown positive? revenues). Everything else is in it's infancy. I agree.
8) It looks like we have pretty good support in the bids at .13, but at the same time, a fairly steady stream of people willing to sell at .14. Hence the balance. Only time will tell if the .14 sellers or the .13 buyers were right. Place your bets and wait (and wait and wait) for company news! yes, but the support is here only for one reason. Their bussines is not profitable, and the value of EUO is only Cash in hands. I really don't understand why you don't mention management expenses here. Any reason?
As usual, this is just my opinion and do your own due diligence.
Lets keep it real. There are both pumpers and bashers on this board. Some are long now, and some want to be long at much lower prices. (FWIW, I'm both) Nobody is just trying to protect the innocent with helpful warnings. The bashers predicting a return to 5 cents have as much chance of being right as the pumpers predicting 30 cents in 2 years. Everything hinges on the ability of Eurocontrol to sell XwinSys devices and on SICPA being able to sell GFI to countries - which leads to expanding sales for Xenemetrix. Failure by EUO or SICPA will lead us lower and lower. Success by either could lead us much higher. Anything in the farming/Ag space is just a welcome bonus if it ever turns into positive revenues. Failure will be a slow grinding realization that expenses are eating away the cash pile we got from the GFI sale. Success will likely be a slow process as well - however, any success could give us enough hope that we dramatically jump the share price higher in a very quick fashion.
One last thing, no news does not inspire confidence Bruce. Start feeding us some information. It doesn't really matter on which aspect of the business you want to enlighten us about. Any news is better than no news.
Cheers
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