RE: RE: Here comes the crash!!!!!!!!!!I think we're going to crash over the next 2-3 weeks down to at least 950 S&P or 9000 on the Dow. It could overshoot this. The key technically is that yesterday the market failed at the 1174 S&P 50 day MA. A failure at the 200 day MA for the S&P coming in at 1100 confirms the crash to me.
Technically last Thursday we already broke the 200 day MA so I believe the crash is a given. The Euro bailout just gave the market a brief rebound nothing more. It also alleviated the oversold conditions so that the market can crash again.
At the time, the media blamed the "flash crash" on computer errors of which none have been found since (no surprise to me). Now they are balming hedge fund Universea on the flash crash. Universea placed a $7.5 market order to sell S&P puts right before the crash. Now surely the most liquid market in the world can handle a $7.5 million order!!! This is the problem with the market - there are simply no bids underneath. The last year has dragged in everyone who would buy this market, and now the last of the dip buyers are in as well.
I follow the charts first and then look for news that explains what I'm seeing happening. One possibility for news is that the Euro bailout needs to be voted and confirmed by all 16 members. Trying to get everyone to approve will not be easy so a hesitation or worse failed vote will cause markets to crash.
The ultimate negative catalyst for the US market is a failed treasury auction. I'm not sure we are at that point just yet, but I believe we will see that for sure later this year.
By the way the crash I'm expecting now will be small compared to the crash I'm expecting later this year...in the fall most likely and carrying into next year.
SC