Same bear mkt that started in 2007It is clear that we are continuing with the same bear market (after the March 09 to April 10 bear mkt rally) that begun years ago. The same sectors that are leading this market lower are the same that lead the way in the 2008 crash. These are:
$XBD Broker/dealers
$BKX Banks
$HGX Housing
If this was a "correction" we would not see the same sectors leading the way down again. They would be different. It indicates that the same old problems with the banks etc were never fixed. This time however, there is an additional leader down and that is $RLX Retail. Yes, that is right, the shoppers are going to disappear. The market is already anticipating this...
The market finally started to rally today as I have been expecting. The rally started quite strong this morning but fizzled out soon after so really it was more of a consolidation day. It would fit my model best if the market were to rally sharply some more right away, but again, time is running out very quickly. The next thing that should happen right after this brief rally is a massive decline. The rally will end abruptly and unexpectedly, and the bottom will fall out very quickly imo.
On a technical note most major global indices now have the death cross in place with the 50 day MA crossing under the 200. The media has been making frequent mention that the S&P just crossed in the last few days. Ironically, I think this is a technical reason which is also indicating a short term bounce here. The big players love to use the media to their advantage to game the public. This is just very short term though as the death cross does tend to indicate an acceleration downwards soon after. This is a very bearish indicator in terms of the big picture.
I think it is best to focus and prepare for the big picture - and that is clearly down.
SC