RE: Is the Black Swan Event a Major Military ConflPyratz,
Agree with much of what you say.
My charts show clearly that we will see a massive deflationary spiral. In fact, the only way to account for the large mkt runup since 2009 is a technical setup for this coming deflationary spiral. This same technical setup is what happened in1930 and it's the same setup this time as well. The difference is that the current patten is much larger, therefore, the coming period should be longer and harsher than the Great Depression imo.
In my opinion we are already in the Depression. It started years ago. I don't count government induced GDP as growth - it's not real.
It will be miserable for those who don't understand what is happening and aren't prepared. We're not at the point where major currencies fail yet, but it will happen in time. When that starts to happen, then the banks and brokerage houses won't be safe and hard assets will be the safehavens. All of this will take considerable time. Until then we might as well trade like there is no tomorrow.
History shows that the risk of major wars increases after financial collapses. Right now the risk of war is low, but will increase in coming years as financial situations deteriorate. People will become angry when things collapse. Right now many still are wearing the rose coloured glasses.
It's depressing to think of the negatives. I prefer to think of it as a new beginning - a fresh start - rather than the end. Let the banks, currencies and gov'ts fail - they always were phony anyways. A simple life is the way things were for thousands of years and the way life always should have been.....
SC