RE: RE: WarningI haven't looked specifically at stocks just yet as it is early. I agree when the time is right commodities will be the place to be during the rebuilding process. First, the demand for commodities is going to plummet as economic activity slows dramatically. We have see that process start this month, copper topped in Feb - there is no demand for copper in housing anymore.
I think we see an initial capitulation bottom in commodities around June 6-7. I've been following Silver closely as there is a lot of action in it with the recent Silver crash. The bottom I mentioned in the last post was too low just yet. Target for June Silver $27.00. Eventually I have calculated a $5 target for Silver in the next few years. That will be a great buy.
Unfortunately, Canada is going to be one of the worst hit initially due to commodities exposure in the next few years. However, once things bottom out then commodities will pull Canada back up into one of the better positioned countries. I hear many people say that Canada has avoided the economic problems in the US - not the case. The commodities plunge has just started and it is going to be vicious. In the long term it is a very large bull mkt for commodities, but the next few years are going to be ugly.
S&P is ridiculously priced right now. Stocks are going to catch up with the drop that commodities and financials have already experienced in May. This is the freefall. There is no way around it - inevitable.
So I am looking for a bottom June 6-7 and then another strong surge up. Once that is complete in a few months, then the real bear mkt begins. I've been trading in and out all year, waiting for the momemtum of this mkt to fizzle out. It's been a process, but not far away now. It is evident that the momentum is waning by the choppy trading lately.
SC