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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum GB Group Ord Shs GBGPF

GB Group plc is a United Kingdom-based company, which provides identity data intelligence products and services helping organizations recognize and verify all elements of an individual's identity at key interactions in their business processes. The Company's segments include location, identity and fraud. The location segment includes address lookup, verification and capture; e-mail validation... see more

OTCPK:GBGPF - Post Discussion

GB Group Ord Shs > The final deal will be between 4.5259 and 6.958 ACB per CMED
View:
Post by MartialArts on Jan 21, 2018 3:33pm

The final deal will be between 4.5259 and 6.958 ACB per CMED

This is assuming an "all shares" transaction with zero cash, based on math and publicly available information.

With 170M ACB shares planned by ACB management and officially approved by ACB shareholders for this acquisition this week, we are objectively looking at:

4.5259 ACB shares per old CMED shares (24.43M) with no dollar cap since it's not a cash offer or
6.958 ACB shares per new dilluted but higher value CMED (CMED+HIP 24.43M+12.84M) shares

If you calculate the "new" CMED which is 37.27M shares times and exchange them with 170M ACB shares, you magically get 4.56 ACB shares per new CMED shares!

As a fan of math, I doubt very much these numbers line up by magic.  The math appears to confirm Aurora management had insider knowledge of the details of the Newstrike valuation since Canaccord is their financial advisors and Canaccord apparently did valuation work for Newstrike?  

The Globe and Mail reported the connection:
"CanniMed is also questioning the actions of investment bank Canaccord Genuity, which it says had access to its confidential financial and operating data as an adviser to Newstrike before being engaged by Aurora for its hostile bid. "Canaccord was subject to non-disclosure obligations "
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/streetwise/hostile-bid-for-cannimed-an-inside-job-ceo-says/article37298782/

Interestingly Canaccord and #1 shareholder Golden Opportunity Fund with past fund CFO and CMED Director are named in the lawsuit recently filed by Cannimed
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180112005721/en/CanniMed-Therapeutics-Launches-725-Million-Lawsuit-Alleging


Lawsuits are messing, costly and discoveries end up in the press creating bad investor sentiment.  Anyone having ever looked at these in the past know that an amiable settlement is the best avenue especially for public traded companies.

I hope that management at CMED can put the bad blood behind them as they work hard to resolve this.

ACB's intentions towards Newstike should be clearner. If ACB and CMED decide they don't want Newstrike as part of this merge, that allows the 170M shares to be offered at 170M/24.43M old CMED shares so 6.958 ACB shares and still stay within the 170M ACB shares allocated this week without paying a dime in cash.

It's unclear to me how much they value the UP Cannabis/Tragically Hip brand. In December they issued a number of very public negative views towards Newstrike.  That could have all been market and hostile takeover positioning?

In any case, I'm a fan of following the rules and fair play.  ACB obviously knows how to push the capital markets to their maximum, and then some.  Let's hope that CMED is up to the challenge but considering the fancy footwork they have done in securing the supply side from Newstike even without a merger (with the $10M or 41cents per share breakup agreement), I have confidence that both these "best of breed" market participants will come to an agreement on a fair and equitable merger that is a win-win-win for ACB-CMED and the sector.


The bad blood and toxicity has to stop.
Comment by Duxing on Jan 21, 2018 4:40pm
Wake up! This is a little bit crazy!
Comment by Wonnetr on Jan 21, 2018 6:51pm
I see the deal being the same as before, without a price cap.
Comment by goldman777 on Jan 21, 2018 7:22pm
I think that if HIP is included in the deal - and I`m betting they are, it will look like this. Numbers are rounded up but we are pretty close in final outcome. So let`s say you have 50,000 HIP shares, assume the 1000 x .033 offer is honoured on a value basis = 1650 CMED, now assume ACB offers 5 for 1 to CMED which I think is very likely = 8250 ACB x $13.50 Fridays close = $111,375. Compared to 50 ...more  
Comment by goldman777 on Jan 21, 2018 7:26pm
1 for six might be a bit generous - so more likely 1 for 7 or even 8
Comment by StrongLong on Jan 21, 2018 6:25pm
You're out to lunch.... I'm bullish but there is no way in hell acb is going to pay 7:1 I agree 4.5 per, post HIP merger is looking like a good possibility because the numbers add up. It is a fair offer even a bit of premium. That's good let's close.
Comment by Raguu17 on Jan 21, 2018 7:53pm
CMED TODAY is 800m  HIP today is 575m That is 1.375 billion. Divide this number by what you think is fair for ACB TODAY!! There is your deal.  Your expectations are extreme.  ACB doesn't have to do anything with CMED. They are already up on this venture. CMED is a 7000kg producing company. ACB just landed access to the Italian medical market. CMED went to Detroit.  To ...more  
Comment by MartialArts on Jan 21, 2018 8:48pm
You forget to mention ACB is $6.1B in market cap and that is the currency being proposed to acquire CMED. My math shows 4.5 to 6.9 ACB shares per CMED shares and if you want to debated the math, please do so beause my numbers are accurate given the 170M shares allocated for this merger. Is CMED worth $859M compared to peers with it's #1 oil and decades of experience and goodwill in the ...more  
Comment by StrongLong on Jan 21, 2018 8:57pm
CMED has a lot of things ACB could use. So does HIP. It's a valuable takeover. Read the investor presentations. If they make a deal I think it will first involve CMED all stock exchange for HIP at 33:1000 ratio. This is already approved by HIP. And from there the combined entity will be exchanged X:1 ACB shares. X = 4.5 , the previous offer without $24 cap = exactly the number of shares ...more  
Comment by Raguu17 on Jan 21, 2018 9:51pm
There isn't a person at the table that takes that lawsiut seriously. Already squashed twice. Literally names anyone who committed their shares in Nov. Think about that. So if I had 100 shares of CMED as heard the offer and liked it, I am now named in a lawsuit. If you think this lawsuit did anything but embarrass Zettl and CMED I don't know what to say.  As far as the currency you ...more  
Comment by StrongLong on Jan 21, 2018 11:32pm
No.. with 100 shares you are not a board member with fiduciary responsibility nor are you a consultant with confidentiality agreements. It names INSIDERS not random share holders.
Comment by goldman777 on Jan 21, 2018 10:01pm
that would put HIP at about a 25% premium to Fridays close based on $13.50 for ACB .... not bad.
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