Detailed Scenario Analysis on SIB Price Range Large Shareholders:
> Warren Buffett (20%) - Pretty sure he won't sell any shares below book value
> Turtle Creek (~17.8%) - Based on my calc, their average cost is at least $22. They won't sell any shares unless they make a healthy profit
> CIBC (~7.7%) - most of their shares are bought after the liquidity crisis, so their average cost is low. They might sell some if the offer is right. I don't think they will sell all because the dividend yield on their cost will be VERY high
> Fidelity (~6.4%) - they bought in in Q4 2017 so their average cost is around $15? They won't sell unless the offer is attractive. Also, these asset managers love dividends and dividend yield on $15 cost is quite attractive. So they probably won't sell
> Kingsferry (~2.9%) - they bought in after the liquidity crisis, so their average cost is really low. They might sell if price is right.
> Taylor (~1.5%?) - same thing. They bought in after the liquidity crisis. They might sell if price is right.
Remaining shareholders:
> Now that leaves around 43.7% or 35 million shares in public hands
Analysis:
I think book value is a good gauge on what price they will offer for two reasons:
1. EQB is trading close to book value now. It is stupid to price a tender offer anywhere below what your competitor is trading at.
2. If HCG wants certainty to price an offer that can achieve their goal of buying back $300 mil worth of shares, they will need the large shareholders to be on board.
Now based on the shareholder analysis above, if they want certainty on buying back $300 million worth of shares, they will need to price at or above their book or else the large shareholders will not even consider. For that reason, conservatively, let's assume the offer is at $23, slightly below book. Based on $300 mllion SIB, $23 offer means 13.0 mil shares (16.3% of shares O/S).
In $23 SIB offer scenario:
> WB - don't think he will sell
> TC - don't think they will sell either as their profit is not that high and they are known to be long term investors
> CIBC - let's assume they tender half to be conservative
> Fidelity - let's assume they tender half to be conservative
> Kingsferry - let's assume they tender all to be conservative
> Taylor - let's assume they tender all to be conservative
RESULT:
Based on this, there will be 55.2% of S/O or 44.3 mil shares that are "tenderable". At $23, they will buy back 13.0 mil shares that is 30% of shares tenderable. Now this is very significant because there are still 12 mil shares of short position for HCG. These short positions will need to be covered because they were mostly sold at much lower than $23. Also, GUESS WHAT, if existing shareholders want to sell their shares to HCG, they will need to get those shares back from the short sellers before they can tender (that is because short sellers borrow shares from exisiting shareholders to do short trades). This is a double whammy for short sellers!
In other words, these 12 mil short position will be competing with the SIB offer price and there will be another wave MAJOR SHORT SQUEEZE coming that will push the price even higher.
Looks like the short sellers will be caught with their pants down. Remember, when you do short trades, your downside risk is UNLIMITED. If I were shorting, I would cover now before its too late. The risk is astronomical. Pretty sure we will see hedge funds collpase and eggs farms liquidated.