GREY:HRIVF - Post by User
Comment by
discern1on Oct 30, 2010 8:02pm
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Post# 17635918
RE: RE: RE: Scluri
RE: RE: RE: ScluriThe reason why the IPO is expected to impact the share price of HRG is really quite simple. HRG makes up approximately 50% of the production and resource base of Severstal Gold, soon to be Nord Gold. If Severstal wants Nord Gold to have a value of $5 billion, then HRG should be worth approximately half this amount or $2.5 billion which works to about $3/share.
Severstal is obviously looking for new investment of around $1billion dollars for this IPO which will require both institutional and retail investors. However, when the shares are made available for purchase and you are an investor, would you rather purchase shares in HRG at a 50% discount if the price remains at $1.35 or purchase stock in HRG and Nord Gold at a price of over 2X?
The only way Severstal will be able to value Nord Gold at $5billion is if the sum of the parts increases. Therefore, we expect HRG will reach a sp of $3 which will only take place through a campaign of HRG releasing drilling results from Bissa, results from Prognoz (and the conclusion of the bankruptcy), expansion of the resources at the two existing Russian mines, the completion of the debt to Royal Gold. . .