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Bullboard - Stock Discussion Forum High River Gold Mines Ltd HRIVF

GREY:HRIVF - Post Discussion

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Post by missouriminer on Oct 30, 2010 9:45am

Scluri

I know what you mean it is very frustrating to see the SP drop on strong Gold days, I don't mind so much on down Gold days as it provides all of us(Severstal included) great buying opp. Someone posted here awhile back that the actual float avail. and trading is about 10mill. When you look at the past weeks volume the only logical theory to me is that one (Severstal) or more of the larger stock holders either Institutional or retail are manipulating the SP in an effort to bank as much profit as possible before the IPO. I for one do not attempt this as my feeling is that once Severstal is ready the promoting and unknowns (Prognoz, Bissa etc.) will be known and the SP will not only rise but will gap up. I love profits as much as anyone but I'm not risking losing out on the big payday trying to make peanuts by trying to time the in and outs. As far as the new CEO I have researched it to some extent and found he has exp. with IPO's and to our benefit provides evidence if needed down the road in a court under a conflict of interest charge. Severstals bread and butter has been the steel industry, to put it lightly the steel business is in deep trouble worldwide and Severstal is worse off than most. They need this IPO to work and work well, I believe the future of Severstal depends on it and this fact plus my trust that the other funds (sprott, Canadian pension fund) and the minority retail investors will continue to exercise fortitude until such time as HRG's true value is realized gives me the confidence to hang in there till the end.....It is an emotional roller coaster.
Comment by tracker11 on Oct 30, 2010 6:22pm
I'm new to HRG. Bought in on Thursday. What is this IPO thing all about. I would appreciate some information.Thanks in advance.Tracker
Comment by maurizion on Oct 30, 2010 7:29pm
I am also a recent shareholder.I have done some reading on the IPO but I fail to see why It should have any effect on HRG shareprice.Anyone care to explain?
Comment by discern1 on Oct 30, 2010 8:02pm
The reason why the IPO is expected to impact the share price of HRG is really quite simple.  HRG makes up approximately 50% of the production and resource base of Severstal Gold, soon to be Nord Gold.  If Severstal wants Nord Gold to have a value of $5 billion, then HRG should be worth approximately half this amount or $2.5 billion which works to about $3/share.Severstal is obviously ...more  
Comment by NaturalCurrency on Oct 30, 2010 9:24pm
Good HRG 101 for new comers. If the new investors want periodic updates which try to put things in proper perspective, they might want to subscribe to regular updates sent by Chris Charlwood (large retail investor, you would find quite a few of his updates on this board if you read pold posts - they are very informative and comprehensive) by sending a mail to rainerc7@gmail.com
Comment by prouditalian on Oct 31, 2010 12:43am
Missouri, no manipulation, just pure selling. Goldman was buying from .50 to .75, and sold from 1.30-1.50. Great profit.On CEO and lawuits. Please, they own 72% of shares and can name Mordashovs grandma and there is nothing you can do. They own the company. I am amazed that some new shareholders do absolutely no dd and dont understand the IPO. As I said, there is no guarantee the ipo will fly ...more  
Comment by topoftheridge on Oct 31, 2010 1:18pm
no manipulation?give your head a shake,just look at any of the intraday charts for HRG, ever wonder why it trades in a "flat line" all day, whereas other stocks are up and down almost every 5 minutes...
Comment by cjsell on Oct 31, 2010 9:41pm
Do not lose sight of the fact that Morashov has iou's in the range of $500 million for his shopping sprees to contend with.  As such it is in Severstal's best interest to get as high a valuation as they possibly can.  Add to this the new debt costs Severstal must also shoulder, lately they have rolled 3 billion in notes with a coupon of over 9%.  They need the IPO more than ...more  
Comment by ThyFish on Oct 31, 2010 10:59pm
I think what Missouri was saying is if a buyout were tabled and were to succeed as you have suggested before, the close ties of the Severstal appointees would make a conflict of interest case very easy to prove.  Hope I interpreted that correctly Missouri....and i don't think that will happen either!!Proud, you are right, there is no guarantee that the IPO will bring the valuation they ...more  
Comment by prouditalian on Nov 01, 2010 1:45am
I sold at my large position at .82 but bought at .15. Banked close to 750k, bought back in at .97 and sold at 1.22. Done v well.I see risks here.IPO failsPOG fallsHRG loses prognozOld mines dropping production levelsSeverstal screwing minorities in other ways.Its cheap on multiples only if you use the 140k OZ they produce from the old mines, take those away and no longer cheap. Not a no ...more  
Comment by bart_dc on Nov 01, 2010 6:25am
Production will stay at this level or even increase with new mines coming online, which makes HRG very cheap at these levels.
Comment by Gbug1 on Nov 01, 2010 11:07am
Proud - we are all aware of your financial genius. You buy at the bottom and sell at the top to some on this board. But this time you might have miscalculated
Comment by Waly on Nov 01, 2010 2:50pm
I feel similar. With all the positive news as of late, I think this drop in price is caused by panic selling. I am in.
Comment by discern1 on Nov 01, 2010 3:01pm
I don't think that there is panic selling going on.  I think there was a fair bit of money in HRG that was expecting price  momentum as the IPO drew near.  Since it appears that the IPO might be delayed, these "gamers" have moved their money to try their luck elsewhere.  This money will come back in January.Unfortunately, for them it might be too late to get in ...more  
Comment by derekcs on Nov 01, 2010 8:27pm
You must have a crystal ball to drop $170 000 when HRG was at  15 cents and then have the forsight to hold on till 82 cents . LMAO
Comment by Waly on Nov 02, 2010 11:07am
Based on your remarks I sense that you think sp will slowly start  moving upward after Nov.8, and by year end when all obstacles are cleared away, the "gamers" will be back in a big way? Or am I too general with my remarks? Can the obstacles acttualy be settled by year end?
Comment by scluri on Nov 02, 2010 12:41pm
I am long on HRG. I must stay long as I bought at higher prices.I am also sure that HRG share price will go up to $3 or more, IPO or not.As far a  Prognoz is concerned, IMO, it is in litigation and far way from production.Without Prognoz and with the clearing of Royal Gold loans and a steadily growing  production coupled with the investments in detour and other assets, HRG is a ...more  
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