IMV Ord Shs IMVIQ

RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Great news on cancer, anyone awake out there?

[qwerty22]

*Ovarian cancer* not breast cancer

qwerty22 wrote:

I'm not waiting for anything, I'm saying they've taken a step forward, I'm trying to understand how big the step is. You seem to assume everything is that 10-bagger moment.

They haven't quite done what you say. They've done a post-hoc analysis which has identified their potential target population, they've identified a pattern between efficacy and pd-l1. yes there is statistical significance, yes there is a strong rationale behind this, yes the efficacy number is fuffing amazing but there is still need to prove this out. You invest now on whether what they've done will move them forward in the regulatory process or trigger Merck to get more involved. Both of those are huge value propositions.

I'd just go with the breast cancer program as an example. After the Incyte trial they had a thesis that the biomarker for that indication was non-bulky disease, there was a pattern and it made a lot of sense. They started the mono therapy trial with the idea that targeting less bulky patients would raise the efficacy of the drug. How did that work out? Do you hear them talking about bulky versus non-bulky anymore? You think you see a relationship in a post-hoc analysis, you have to prove it out.

Merck are the experts here, they see this data all the time, I'm sure they know what they are looking for in a data set. It would be good to identify some precedent with other drug programs where this level of evidence triggered greater involvement.

They've proved the drug has anti-cancer activity a long time ago. Now they need to prove they are ready to move the program forward to the next level, that's 100% my focus here. That next step, as you hint should be hugely valuable. They've shown us what they've got I want to spend some time understanding if what they've got takes us to the next level that's all. Given the SP today it seems I can give myself that time.

I definitely think this is progress. I what the analysts to ask what this means for the regulatory process and what Merck think about this.
 

 

QM45 wrote:
Basically They've gone from "a drug with lots of promise" to "a drug with lots of lots and lots of promise in a specifically identified population", an important step forward.

LOL! If only markets worked that way you'd be rich Qwerty... 

By the time you get the confirmation you are looking for this will be sitting at $20 plus or already taken out. 

You have effectively two arms of this study: Pos and Neg. Done by reputable IMV independent research facility. You have clear mechanism of action demonstrated in previous studies, you have a clear biomarker. 

Got my first 50K this morning, hoping to get to 100K before this gets away. Need 200K more under 3.5US to get to my target. Upgrades coming post Nov 12  update. Let's see what good old WF dotard is going to say about this results. Is he going to studder on Cyclophosphamide again?