RE: With LBE, reality is a good thing.legend7,
I think you confused the bashers with reality - they are not used to looking at things in realistic terms - they're stumped for a reply. I found your numbers quite interesting. I had played with Q4 numbers for some idea on total revenue, and was a bit lower than your forecast - but Ni has increased since then. Wasn't sure what the latest numbers might be for costs.
The thing that the bashers don't seem to have a handle on is the cash flow potential when you start hitting the 1800 to 2000 tonne daily levels at the mill. They like to talk costs coming from start up processing levels, or talking about a misquote on an Old Gary Nash interview. rocksolid47 (the guy who predicted ISM would hit $64.40 in 2007) spends time talking about an operating loan of $556,630 being extended, as though that was some hurdle that could not be overcome. These loan amounts get put in perspective when you start looking at potential $60 million cash flow to cover administration and debt service.
I also had a look at the administration and debt costs, based on the annual statements. First of all, a fact that the banished basher aatozz could never get through his mind - current debt costs do not continue on indefinitely, when you're paying off the debt - and eventually they become nil. My number for debt related costs for Q4 was $2.4 million; again a number put in perspective when looking at $60 million cash flow, and realizing the debt costs will decrease as debt is repaid.
Where LBE really shines when compared to other companies has been the control over administration costs. These are bound to increase over 2009 numbers (under $2 million), but they will not be significant in relation to the cash flow potential, and you know Gary Nash will not let the costs run wild, just because the cash is there.
The market has not begun to recognize the potential that seems evident from your numbers. When the public start seeing some numbers along the lines you mention on quarterly reports, the share price will move. Once the mill is operating near capacity, I guess the next thing LBE will be expected to do is prove up some more reserves and move out the mine life numbers a few years. The thing is, the prospects for extending existing mines are there, there are other prospective targets, and cash flow will allow the required exploration and development to proceed. LBE is near ( a couple of months, or less) some very significant milestones, and I don't think even the long time supporters realize how close it is. The market is undervaluing it, and the bashers don't know what production profits mean. They're still going around thinking that mining is where some big multi-national comes along and buys you out for $64.40 per share - as is, where is, sight unseen.
Again, thanks for the numbers - maybe some others could check in with their comments.