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Lumina Copper Corp LCPRF



GREY:LCPRF - Post by User

Comment by elmothefearlesson Jun 10, 2011 1:50am
358 Views
Post# 18697358

RE: RE: RE: RE: YOO - banking on that one

RE: RE: RE: RE: YOO - banking on that oneLCC has approx. 40 million shares outstanding fully diluted.  Our market cap. is currently ~$230 million.  


A quick examination of LCC's valuation:


1. For a junior gold the in situ (e.g. value in the ground) per oz of gold is ~$75.  We have ~3 million oz's of gold.  3 million x $75 = ~$225 million.  The value of our gold alone justifies our market cap. in its entirety.


2. A "rule of thumb" to value base metals is to use 1% of the spot price of the metal.  ~9 billion lb's of copper x
.04 = ~$360 million, or ~50% higher than our current share price (~$9/share).



3. We have ~350 million lb's of moly, @
.17 / lb that is equivalent to ~$60 million that we are not getting credit for.



4. We have over $20 million in cash., so when valuing LCC, to determine the enterprise value we should actually reduce it by this $20 million.


5. Since completing the NI 43-101 compliant resource, being ~3 million oz's gold, 8.7 billion lb's copper, and 350 million lb's of molybdenum, we have SUBSEQUENTLY drilled our HIGHEST and BEST intercepts to DATE, in ADDITION to EXPANDING the resource.  So that NI 43-101 compliant resource is the absolute MINIMUM of what we have.


6. We are in a safe mining jurisdiction in a stable country; again, this should be built into our valuation, and it is not.


7. We have the requisite infrastructure and access to power to build a mine; again, not built into the share price.


8. The average takeover price per lb of copper in the ground for copper juniors over the last 2 years has been ~
.063/lb of copper in the ground.  9 billion lb's of copper x
.063 = ~$570 million, or ~$14.25 / share.



9. The LOWEST acquisition price per lb of copper in the ground over the last 2 years has been for Norsemont @
.045 / lb of copper in the ground.  
.045 x 9 billion lb's = $405 million, or ~$10/share.



10. If I recall correctly, we do not have any OXIDES (all sulphide), meaning our strip ratio will be low.  Again, it justifies a premium valuation.


11. Our management team has sold 4 companies over the past 10 years; again, this justifies a premium valuation.  
On the flip side, what would justify a lower valuation:


1. We have not completed a PEA.
2. Mineralization begins ~200 to ~300 meters below surface (this is the biggest drawback, as it makes it more expensive to mine to get to the good stuff)


Now, why do I think we're not getting credit?


We are not getting credit because our management team does not go to market often for money.  Most of the private placements are non-brokered.  Consequently we have little to no analyst coverage.  All this does is provide us with a great opportunity to purchase one of the cheapest copper juniors on the market.
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