GREY:LGVWF - Post by User
Comment by
Nawaralsaadion Feb 20, 2014 10:58am
234 Views
Post# 22229969
RE:RE:RE:Who owns the shares
RE:RE:RE:Who owns the shares Based on my numbers, this is how a $7 valuation can be derived today:
| Valuation Comps | | | |
| | Light Oil | Per Flowing | Value |
| SE Saskatchewan Light* | 2100 | $115,000 | $241,500,000 |
| | | | |
| Alberta** + (Sask. Heavy) | | | |
| NG | 1200 | $20,000 | $24,000,000 |
| NGLs | 500 | $45,000 | $22,500,000 |
| Heavy | 580 | $50,000 | $29,000,000 |
| Light | 1600 | $85,000 | $136,000,000 |
| | | | |
| Total | 5,980 | | $453,000,000 |
| Debt + WD | | | $120,800,000 |
| Net: | | | $332,200,000 |
| Per share | | | $7.07 |
| | | | |
| *SE Saskatchewan Light comp: | RBC December 23rd report (average for SE Sas. Transactions 2013) |
| **Alberta comps: | various | | |
The numbers above can adjusted based on certain specifics to each asset such as high AROs (for some mature assets) which may not be captured here. While I believe we can justify $7 for a deal, I still see a deal at $6.5 (25c either side) since the buyer is likely to aim for some “meat” on the bone. It is also important to note in a share deal, shareholders can still participate in the development of our asset base. Longview does not have the balance sheet and execution history to derive production substantially higher, if a buyer can increase production from our assets to 7K-8K relatively quickly we all stand to gain handsomely as the added cash flow gets amplified by the buyer supposedly higher EV/DACF multiple.
Regards,
Nawar