Post by
ScarletSpider on Feb 09, 2020 1:57am
Speaking Very Neutrally...
the type of questions posted about products being sold and making any waves is actually a very legtimate one and something companies need to do a better job in letting their shareholders know what is going on with some more regular updates. The last we heard about the Champignon brand as to my recollection was November. There are things this company along with Yield Growth say but don't follow up on that makes people skeptical about either whether they are actually doing what is said or really how much impact those things have revenue wise.
There are companies that tell you about contract after contract with joint venture partners yet nothing about what those contracts may be worth--some wait for that information to be released in the quarterly which by exchange rules they are obligated to do that at the very least but nothing else which then makes things difficult for retailers to know whether the equity will be moving up or down but in the mean time the equities tend to drift down until the next news release where it goes up and is the typical buy on rumor sell on news and repeat.
Now whether this company and yield growth are bs companies due to lack of information or not is not very easy to say in the least but at the end of the day yes it will come down to the bottom line and hype alone will give way to more reasonable and grounded prices--a lot of the first wave cannabis were obviously trading over any real actual share value mainly due to the correct circumstances that the supply would be fairly restrictive due to licensings and what not but then the converse happened you had an over supply and the segment hit the worst was the consumer goods not those that need further scientific expertise pushing products more towards the pharmaceuticals and neutraceuticals so here is what i will say about things like Champignon Brand mushroom tea--it is not one that has stringent medical guides as to my understanding and falls under consumer shelved goods found either in physical retail space or online as stated, but with that comes lots of other companies doing the same damn thing so it all comes down to branding and building the need to say your product is better than the others out there for xyz reason but at the end of the day as with the cannabis what will happen is that because there are so many products and varying prices it will drop like a rock and what you have is a collapse in the recreational consumer good side very much like the cannabis. The money as far as i am always concerned will not come from the consumer shelved products at least not in any huge way but perhaps enough to have good enough revenue flow through to put towards further expenditures to avoid heavier dilution.
There was an article on SH claiming that psychedelics is unlike cannabis in that cannabis is product oriented (meaning from my way of seeing it consumer goods) and pyschedelics are services and more tangible. I almost peed myself laughing at how stupid of an article that is because the truth is that the two are actually non different and the person who wrote that saying what he or she did is full of cra**. The bottom line is that the monies will be on the medicinal side way more so than the products although they can work hand in hand with dr.'s having products and recommending them if that is what will happen which it is a given--they will likely say for non pharma prescription you can try this that which they are attached to as either an advisory capacity or as more like Mark and of course they will also suggest/prescribe the products that companies are working on and have in fact been cleared for treatment.
Now i have said that this company has a build out ahead of it and there is a reason for it and why i projected the share range that i have. I have another holding and i am just using it for illustrative purposes and no mean trying to say buy it or not--cbii which is in the cannabis side of things--the company has around 100,000 clients in the US that have been using treatments recommended to it by people involved with the company--they also have various research things going on in Europe as well as South America--the model that this company is following is obviously very similar to this one which is actually a smart model but unlike the cannabis the psychedelics still have to become more broadly legal as the cannabis which is further ahead so for that reason seeing that cbii is currently having a tough time reaching .20 (and i am strongly suggesting it is being held back deliberately by shorting so people can get cheap shares before it proves to be EBITDA positive) this one is no where near that but can make excellent gains as i see a solid business model in this way. Now this company doesn't have at the time as far as i can tell systematized analytic system in place which is actually the very core and strong foundations that cbii is working with and the reason that i will say that even if the model is good without efficient analytics this company is missing a key component that is very useful and would be great if they can systematize data collection and dissemination--again, i am just telling you what is out there and why they trade where they do and this is where it is right now and whether people want to buy cbii or not is up to you as i am not recommending yes nor no--just info about the fields.
And if you look at ndva and read their comments on the boards (i don't hold a single share there), i almost posted something that they would really love me for--being saracastic understand that they are trading under false hopes relatively high on being licensed to start selling consumer goods starting with cannabis chocolates--people are jumping up and down thinking that the company is all of sudden going to make a huge impact based on the company claiming they are now able to sell their ever popular cannabis chocolates--again there are so many products out there that consumers have so much choice that their fickleness caused massive problems to cannabis recreational providers--everyone and their dog who knows the basics of cannabis can provide to you edibles, drinks, creams and what not--the trick will always rest in the pharma natraceutical that is very effective in treating things they are stated and meant to but in so far as consumer shelved goods it will all be about branding and being among those making a lot in that space and that as the first wave of cannabis has proven is very cut throat. I figure that in the psychedelics it will be very much the same. At one time cannabis was $15 a gram and when there was over supply it came down to as low as $5 with industry analyst calling even lower prices and a race to the bottom. In some ways i would be really good with this and that is when people who actually need the cannabis for medicinal purposes will now have cheaper medicines with the drop in prices--but if the prices stay up i find it quite cruel where many who need it can't afford to get it to help them with medical problems so that was at least a good flip side for those who need it but not for shareholders--given i am in the industries i will look to at some point contribute to these things to help as many people get affordable treatment--that is a bit of a long term goal.
In any case, I am viewing this with wide open eyes as to what i have seen with one industry that seems very much like another but yes i initially invested here as well as in yield growth due to the hype but still looking realistically with every intention of moving shares around as i have been very open about, but unlike yield growth i have shares here i sold out of over there because they were stuck at their resistence level this on the other hand i had a sense would break through it which at one time was .025-.03 and so far it looks to have proven correct. Now in regards to this and yield growth needless to say that is trading about six times higher because from the looks of it it seems to be more along the way but both this and yield growth have been hammered by people who have legitimate claims that both need to do a way better job in updating retailers, however, you know what i have said so i wouldn't expect much from retail consumer goods--yield growth by the way had mushroom tea where a minimum payment was stated and that the company would make at least $100,000 a year from that--we didn't know (those invested there i was at the time) whether it would be the smaller end or actually more--given what i know of the fields i would be expecting modest gains even if above $100,000 a year let's just say i don't think it will be more than a max 1 million and that too not just in this year but several more after--that is how difficult i think the field is but that is just my gut as without any hard numbers i or anyone else can say anything and the reason that updates are in fact very important to show at least how things are trending--companies should not hide this data--that is not cool! That said, for me i will move according to what i see not only in terms of share value but tangibilities too.