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There is a new book to be published in May 2013 and available for pre-order on Amazon called "Cold, Hungry and in the Dark - Exploding the Natural Gas Myth" by Bill Powers and Art Berman. The thesis of this book is that the reported depletion rates of shale natural gas wells are understated. Basically shale gas wells are depleted much faster than estimated by the gas producers. Since there has been sharply reduced drilling for the past 12 months because of low gas prices, the true natural gas depletion rate will become evident in 2013 as there is a sudden shortage of natural gas and prices rise sharply. The recent Ultra Petroleum conference call discusses these issues with Ultra management saying that there will be a bounceback in natural gas prices in 2013 because of depletion and cutbacks in drilling. When this trend becomes evident to the market, coal will replace natural gas for electricity generation with higher prices. The supply/demand balance in natural gas and coal will put the producers back in the driver's seat sometime in 2013.
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