RE: Penn West A few numbers for comparison between LTS and PWT.
From my perspective, it appears that PWT just lowered its dividend payment to the level of LTS's (~20% of netbacks) and they have a similar level of debt. LTS at PWT's valuation would be worth around $14.50.
The biggest issue with this calculation is that PWT's decline rate is likely lower than LTS's - can anyone quantify that?
Any opinions more than welcome.
PWT:
Production Guidance: 140,000 BOE/day (midpoint)
Q1 Netbacks: $27.76 / boe
Annualized Netback: $1,418 mm
Dividend (old): $1.08 /sh = $520.6 mm (36.7% of netback)
Dividend (new): $0.56/sh = $270 mm (19% of netback)
Debt: $2,962 mm
Debt / Netback: 2.1x
EV: $8.35 bn
EV / Netback: 5.9x
LTS:
Production Guidance: 47,000 BOE/day
Q1 Netbacks: $49.79 / boe
Annualized Netback: $854 mm
Dividend: $0.96/sh = $186 mm/year (21.8% of netback)
Debt: $2,000 mm
Debt / Netback: 2.34x
EV: $3.88 bn
EV / Netback: 4.5x
LTS $/sh @ PWT EV/Netback: $14.46