RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RedeemI don't wish to be negative on this board.
I do believe LTS will come into it's own provided management do the right thing ...
heraclitus -
Short of arguing semantics or whether of not shorts are shareholders or not.
Whether the share price is the shareholders fault and that management isn't that bad.
How about some facts ... since the start .. the purchase of TriStar and 53% spinoff from Petrobank.
Year end 2009, makes and interesting comparison Y/E 2009 to now.
From my own DD, this information is out there. Bought TriStar – Implied valuation of Petrobakken $27.57
2009 total Company exit production greater than 37,000 boepd (after the planned Alberta asset dispositions), more than 95% light oil.
Or – 37,000 + 9,500 = 46, 500 boed actual ( pre divestiture )
( Divestiture was approximately 9,500 boepd (44% light oil, 56% natural gas), and 40.1 mmboe of proved plus probable reserves )
More than 27,000 boepd from the Bakken (greater than 70% of total Company exit 2009 production).
More than 127 mmboe of high quality, primarily light oil, proved plus probable reserves (as at December 31, 2008, except for TriStar’s acquisition of Talisman properties with reserves reported based on a March 31, 2009 effective date) with significant future reserve growth potential through
revisions, additions, improved recoveries and the application of technology.
Proved plus probable reserve life index of more than 9 years.
Significant land inventory of over 1.0 million net acres with over 800,000 net acres in southeast Saskatchewan, making PetroBakken the single largest landholder in this region. Of this, over 280,000 net acres (440 net sections) are located in the Bakken play fairway with significant further exposure to
Bakken exploration activity, including 80,000 net acres in Montana.
Further reserve enhancement capabilities on 110 net sections of existing producing Bakken acreage.
More than 1,300 future Bakken drilling locations.
Significant upside gas potential in the Horn River and Montney plays in northeast BC, with potential resource capability of 5 to 20 TCF of original gas-in-place (“OGIP”) contained in more than 63,000 net undeveloped acres, with over 400 potential drilling locations, providing an additional long-term growth platform. Industry leading operating netbacks in excess of $57.00/boe based on US$75.00 WTI.
Expected operating costs of approximately $8.00/boe.
Approximately $1.9 billion of tax pools.
Run rate cash flow of more than $700 million based on US$75 WTI oil price and 2009 exit production.
2010 capital budget of approximately $550 million based on a US$75 WTI oil price.
Initial dividend of $0.96 per share per annum, payable monthly, representing a payout ratio of 23% based on run rate cash flow.
Excellent financial flexibility with a pro forma debt to cash flow ratio of less than one times.
172 million PetroBakken shares outstanding.
Industry leading technical team.
Production
The three and twelve month periods ended December 31, 2008.
Lt/Med Oil and NGL (bbl) Gas (Mcf) Total (BOE) 2008
Saskatchewan 25,896 33,399
Alberta 4,690 9,989
British Columbia 573
Manitoba 385
Total PetroBakken 30,906 44,346