RE:RE:RE:TD Earnings Estimate Excellent post and sums up our present situation well.
If it sounds like I'm really annoyed, it's because I am.
I would add, being that Management are the worst performers in Canada. , Market is fearful they will act ... and do the WRONG thing.
Anyway, that's my fear
I'm concerned the dopes in charge have hedged, or will hedge at the price bottom.
I'm concerned the dopes will delay buying back shares and will accelerate borrowing.
I'm concerned the dopes don't know what we have, what lies under what we now sell.
I'm most concerned because management don't mind lying to us ....
It's likely costing more to replace production than we get as income when selling.
Our drilling and operating costs are presently much higher that our peers.
This in spite of what management claim .... ask and they will spin like crazy while telling us nothing
Well economics they show are not real and up to date.
Someone ... ask during the conf. call and see what they say.
I asked last CC and they said yes ... wells economics numbers are hopeful not actual.
Our oil production is not the number everyone quotes, it's now over 21% Gas.
Concensus has 2015 at 30,000 b oil d, 2016 at 29,000 bod ..... Not Great IMO
whoa_rimcheese wrote:
My point - how LTS does not have more of its production hedged is beyond me.
Thus, management needs to decide, start letting debt accumulate again, reduce CAPEX and accept some production erosion (which investors hate), and/or cut the dividend.
As far as a share buyback - if excess cash is available, that is a no-brainer. It is effectively a 14% ROI at this point, which is better than paying down debt, or quite frankly, drilling at this point.
Effectively, LTS is being valued at about $62k/flowing barrel using an EV of 2.2 billion and production of 35,000. That is shockingly low, unless there is something we don't know....