GREY:MAAFF - Post by User
Post by
Ethanbrodieon Nov 03, 2010 7:58pm
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Post# 17654056
stop the madness
stop the madness First off, Complant built, and developed previous potash sources without this "bhp-potash" situation.
Second, Complant was very serious about developing a potash play with mag before this bhp-potash deal.
third, Complant was interested in mag before potash really started to be an accepted commodity that will be in demand for the short med and probably long term.
What has really changed is that potash is in higher demand, prices are set to go higher, and everyone wants to securesources of potash because of all the media about shortages of food etc.. this all happened after the mag-Complant deal. Don't think that the SDIC didn't know what they were getting themselves into when complant signed an initial feasability study agreement with mag. The reason why they do this is because if they see it as a good deal, they proceed which we know it is a good deal for both sides politics just got in the way, but this will be short lived.
The Chinese Government basically ordered to stop any pending deals with the commodity when the bhp-potash deal was mentioned (bad timing for us). SDIC also knows of the situation where potash is in high demand, and mag is in a production ready status. They also know mag is very cheap and because of the recent developments may not last if they take too much time but know mag wants to deal with them and would not prefer a buyout,
I believe that SDIC will sign in nov despite any news on bhp/pot deal.
I also don't understand why people think that china is going to ship mag's potash to themselves. It is quite far away and I don't think that is their intention. I believe that they would sell it to africa, europe and brazil, and this play will act as more of a hedge on the price of potash being delivered by sask or bhp.
I believe that a more likely scenario is that they will further develop their own source and possibly take over etheopia's project which is much closer.