GREY:MAAFF - Post by User
Post by
Brainwave1on Dec 21, 2010 3:01pm
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Post# 17877868
Future value
Future valueTSC gets 55% majority control for $185m and the project proceeds on debt finance, assuming the due dilligence and shareholder approval requirements are met. At least this opens the way for the company to create value going forward based on the project being developed. What is the S/P worth then? Hard to know because the debt financing terms are not known yet, but there is plenty of upside from where we are now.
This is not the big spike that was going to come from a final deal with China being announced -- and would have let me get out and move on from this nightmare of a company - but it does at least deliver us from the slow bleed of being screwed over by Complant. Do they get to hold on to the engineering contract? Do they want it still, do we still want them? There is some schadenfreude in knowing they have now been sent packing. Hard to know if they were aware this was up and failed to act because they weren't interested enough, or have been taken by surprise. Am hoping its the latter, even though, as a rational investor, I am not supposed to let emotion come into the mix.
Where to from here? Future value will come from the rest of the project milestones (that we lost two years waiting for) : debt finance, construction, executing production. That looks like 2-3+ years. A long time to wait. But TSC does not look like a mine operating company, more a financing and project development outfit, so this thing could still get sold on to someone else at some point along the line. Am in Johannesburg now, good place to find out some more about TSC.
It's been a long haul for longs, and it ain't over yet. But hey, let's see where the SP goes tomorrow.