OTCPK:MAUXF - Post by User
Comment by
CalifDreamingon Nov 04, 2010 12:33am
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Post# 17655170
RE: Warren's target price of $0.75
RE: Warren's target price of $0.75Verbonac is being conservative. 2.2x cf multiple? Most juniors trade over 5x. Yes, Nigeria. Yes, Mart's poor history. But still, 2.2x is very low. He's leaving lots of room to bump his targets.
Based on the data Mart has presented, it appears they are being quite conservative - for what it's worth, they say so themselves. And I sure hope they are right.
If there is any reasonable correlation btw sand thickness and production rates (as I think there should be), Umu 6 and the following wells could enjoy much higher production than current guidance. I wouldn't be surprised if they see twice (or more) the production they are guiding for the wells that target the thicker sands.
If Umu 5 is producing 2100 bpd (with no water) after a year from a relatively thin 15' sand, it begs common sense to think that a new well with 4-6x thicker sands, with dual zone completion will only produce 3000 bpd. Especially as we are told the deeper sands are expected to be cleaner, and thus more productive.
Deliverability isn't my major concern. It is whether or not the deeper zones are water or hydrocarbon filled. We'll soon find out.