OTCPK:MAUXF - Post by User
Comment by
CalifDreamingon Feb 16, 2011 5:34am
487 Views
Post# 18141244
RE: RE: RE: Expected Price to Cashflow Ratio
RE: RE: RE: Expected Price to Cashflow RatioJFF,
.
You seem surprised about the tax rates. Not sure why. Plenty of countries (especially OPEC nations) have similar tax and royalty regimes.
.
I'm pretty sure the Marginal Fields have different tax structures and that 65% is max rate.
.
As others pointed out, ~65% isn't unusual for an OPEC nation. Libya has ~93+% effective tax and royalty rates. When they opened up the country to new exploration/development ~5 years ago, everyone and their brother was falling over themselves to bid on their concessions. How about Iraq? They are service contracts and all the big boys get is a few dollars fee per bbl - of course, when you are pumping millions of bbls, you can make nice $ doing it.
.
While Verbonac says 5x cf multiple is appropriate under normalized conditions (most plays trade at higher multiples these days), the problem is his underlying cf assumptions. He assumes much lower production rates and much slower production ramp. He only gives credit for U7 for half a year, and nothing for U8 - which makes zero sense.
.
Realistically, as most analysts and investors are lazy, until we see the reserve report confirm our expectations about a large reserve increase and get some clarity wrt to the political situation and export pipeline reliability, we may just sit at these levels until U7 comes online in a few months.