RE: RE: Q4 & 2012 Projection & Divvy Open to interpretation of course. Using TTM metrics and some reasonable assumptions the numbers are saying we could open 2012 with cash balance of 26M (excludes restricted cash) and do 140M of CF Ops at Bonny $110.
Asuming CFOps is "Discrecionary Cash Flow" which in corporate finance terms means cash flow that should be used to generate returns to shareholders either via dividends or reinvestment in the business to grow earnings.
Out of 140M in Discrecionary 2012 Cash Flow we easily have capacity to return $65M to shareholders ($.10 June 30th special divvy, $.05 quarterly divvy on Sept 30 + Dec 31), therefore there is still $75M in Discrecionary cash flow remaining for drilling/pipeline/central processing facility capex. As the pipeline can be mostly debt financed we don't need to allocate large funds for this in 2012.
What my model says is post-potential-$65M in dividends, the ending Discrecionary Cash balance is $100M. We could spend $50M in Capex in 2012, so actual cash balanace could end up at $50M which means our Working Capital ratio should be very strong so the potential dividend scheme I modeled is low-risk as long as AGIP lets us pump.
If any of the restricted cash is released there is even less risk to $.10/$.05/$.05.