RE: Year End Out.... At $.05 and 345M shares, dividend in April was around $17.3M (same as accrual at year end). Since 2012 FCF before WC Changes was $66M or $5.5M a month, I would image with Jan-Feb production Mart built back up to a 1.00X current ratio before the March production stoppage and April dividend.
We are definitely at a negative current ratio now but nothing we can't recover from as long as pipeline stays open and if we draw down the $100M term loan soon the dividend is backstopped further.
To simplify things:
2012 FCF before WC Changes: $66M
2013 Dividends: $69.2M (4 x $17.3M)
Basically, if we produce at 2012 levels all 2013 we can pay dividend and end up a 1.00X current ratio on Dec 31st, 2013 again if we fronted a similar portion of Capex in 2013 as 2012 ($44M). We are obviously behind with March-April17th production stoppage but if Umugini pipeline is actually running by Q3......
FCF is Free Cash Flow FYI. I am using CFOps before WC Changes less Cash Flow from Capital Expentitures. This is proxy for cash generated in the year after drilling and ignoring short term and long term financing.