RE:Mat I go with #2Definitely long! The latest run has me hopefully for a new floor, which after years of patience might lock in a solid return, making the future even more rewarding => right inline with more power generation coming on line!
1. Ross Beaty is a winner. He found a few years ago he is not in mining and did what intelligent individuals, savy investors and prudent leaders do = he changed course!
I am not sure why he hasn't pushed for more accountability at Alterra (results, management, etc.), perhaps distracted by other (more profitable) ventures or prehaps still gathering information or perhaps waiting for some pieces to fall in place before moving forward (patience is a virtue) (all speculation)
I do believe he is positionig the company to strike and to try to time the next market cycle when the industry is hot.
2. I do not believe there is a dividend on the way; sadly, this may hurt the company's reputation; but I believe they are focused on growth. I suspect the "road show" is a cover to either sell the company or to use the company's market cap to acquire smaller operations through stock acquistion\merger.
Additionally, I do not believe a reverse split or US listing is in the near future (12 months). A reverse split is seen as negative and the company if finally growing and bringing bringing revenue generating assets online. Why offset "positive" momentum with a "negative" reverse split?
The company can use acquiring additional revenue generating assets as a reason not to issue a dividend. Also, where is the money for a dividend? In Iceland (the majority of cash)? Ask Newstock44 a bout getting money out of that country :)
In my opinion, a dividend right now is not a good use of financial resources. First, they need to strenthen their balance sheet via several quarters of positive cash flow and profit via GAAP (no add backs to earnings!).
I can see a dividend in a certain scenario which requires financial engineering: 1. A reverse stock split (yes I realized what I just typed) and then a stock split of 1 "preferred share" for every 10 to 20 shares of common. The "preferred shares" would receive the dividend, not common. This would greatly reduce the amount of the dividend payable, yet management would be able to save face with investors.
...OR...to attracted European investors (and perhaps a number of increasing areas around the world) fleeing from negative interets rates, a dividend may be issued to boost demand and stock price...still a part of the financial engineering option...
I am not "chart" guy, but the current momentum has the charts looking good. Momentum investors may jump on board increasing the stock price (i.e. you don't need a reverse split to get to $1 USD).
3. Totally agree, maybe a buyout. Per my previous post Ross said something at the shareholders' meeting which had made me think this is no longer the long-term family own, feel good investment of the future. This has made me believe the "road show" is a cover to sell the company or position it via stock mergers to be a part of a larger company or acquire smaller (perhaps 1 power plant operations) via stock.
I do find it amazing, the good feeling of being rewarded with the stock price. I hope this confirms the multiple years of patience and "nibbles" of investments in the company. Ross is a more intelligent individual than I am, a more savy investor than I am, and a better leader than I am...but I had the option, via the free market, to invest in him for pennies on the dollar...
I hope this race ends well,
Bold Forbes