RE: RAB Special abou to collapseTraderfan, could even be worse if other bigger investors in APE have started selling APE in anticipation of the supposed RAB collapse. The rumors and news about the RAB problems have hit the market at the beginning of September and this date marked the start of the heavy down-leg of APE. CIM Special Situations seems to have some problems as well and merged at least one other hedge-fund (Key Special situation) into the base CIM hedgefund and CIM has sold some shares earlier this year. To find out if CIM is the big seller one could investigate if the daily house positions at these selling days (listed at Sedi) match with the sold CIM shares and if Blackmont appears as seller at those days.
The resource estimate is imminent and it will be a very promising one with at least 8 MT @ 10-12 oz/t . APE is under fire from different directions. 1) political situation in Bolivia that is perceived by market as unfavorable although I personally think that recent developments (secession of some states) are positive for APE because Pulacayo is not located in one of this regions and the Bolivian Government will be even more dependent on foreign investments in order to generate state income and this is the reason why they gave a Governmantal guarantee for the assets of the foreign mining company and this is why more and more money from emerging countries is flowing into Bolivia
2) the huge internal problems of Apex that are mainly attributed to the hedge policy (firced or unforced doesn't matter) of Apex itself. This could be a chance for APE in terms of cheaply buy-out the other 40% of Paca/Pulacayo but on the other side APE has lost the option to direct the project to Apex getting a free-carried ride into production. This makes it more likely in my view that a Chinese/Japanese/Russian/Indian/South Korean based company will buy the whole project after an favorable BFS will be finished 3) not necessary to mention but the downmove in commodity prices hit APE as well at least in terms of negative sentiment but on the positive side high grade projects like Pulacayo will be on the buying list of the majors. We just have seen the results of the UTVS (U=upper) but traditionally the LTVS (L=lower) is the real high grade layer of this project.
If the current price level is once in a lifetime opportunity depends on your guesstimate if APE will be able to finish the BFS in timely manner. I have no doubts that the resource and grades will support a highly profitable mining scenario but I have no idea about the cash requirements until we reach BFS status. The decision to delay the Paca drilling program was a good decision. APE has a new and brilliant resource geologist who is currently reviewing the whole Paca project and this makes sense because Paca has a very interesting feeder zone that is silver rich and other parts of the project that is dominated by zinc. A new resource model could facilitate a more metal-focussed approach.
I will keep my whole position ("better fool") and will hold it until APE brings P&P into production, sell it to a major or will file insolvency.
Cheers
Art