Calgary_AB wrote: Your post does make sense and Long term this are good numbers to compare.
Short term even to intraday I see NMX as being taken advantages of by big boys on daily bases until they actually produce and start showing positive cash flows.
Why do I see that happening:
Financial firms with big pockets need to show a daily profit from the work they did today. When the big markets are dropping even a little, they all start looking at any opportunity they get to show they are green for the day. NMX is perfect company to attract these shark frenzy and regardless of actual valuation, market makers are there to make profits more so as day traders do. They take every opportunity in the book they can and even if not in the book yet they will invent it until someone makes it illegal or puts it in the book. With the financing such big numbers it attracts the sharks, when financing is done right with actual valuations being considered the sharks are not attracted therefore when NMX said they had multiple good offers they miss leaded you, the offers were from sharks. The sharks will make an offer as they know they can make the profits even before all shares are issued, from shorting to options, warrants, previous holdings they had etc… It takes a while to have the transfer into “Strong hands”, strong hands come in when they see positive cash flow. Ofcourse some strong hands will gamble a certain amount similar to what Softbank did. Softbank is simply laying eggs all over the place and not necessarily expect too much out of NMX, but if things work out they benefit, if it doesn’t work out they had eggs in the basket. You can watch videos about
Masayoshi Son, he is a brilliant guy and he takes chances in sectors he believes in for the future, but even he will tell you the chances he takes don’t always produce results…by the way, all big investors across all sectors do the same, they have a certain amount to feed the juniors and without those founds juniors would all die in all sectors. As far as the QC Gov. being invested in NMX also doesn’t tell me anything. Gov. will invest your tax money especially if it creates local jobs and has a chance of succeeding and NMX does have a chance… but Gov. can risk more than a private investor would. So the share issue part of investment is the most diluted part and that is the one that we see now playing the SP. All the sharks in a frenzy, you can try to get a piece of it but be aware of the sharks around you, they may swallow you by accident but most likely intentional…
My opinion: if you are long and bought in years ago, just wait for the frenzy to slow down, if you are a trader but got caught with shares you can turn to be long and potentially make your profits at the end or just unload and move on because until NMX actually shows a profit the sharks will play this and when you think they left the room and see no shark in site, you will get attacked from behind.
I have been a part of shark’s meals many times in the past and learned my lesson, let’s call it lessons…the actual Valuations and all the things that actually make sense are all broken when a shark infested waters are active…
For the Longs and people that do know about valuations, I am not saying this to deny your knowledge or to provoke a fight, all of us together on this whole forum can not possibly change the day…unless you have a billion dollars to save it with….if we all put our money together we are a small % of the sharks value… our numbers don’t really count and the point here is how do we protect our own money?
I protected mine by unloading everything before financing, I did it a little too early because financing was to be done last year in the spring…people that didn’t protect it and are longs, can look at this as a crack in the HI way to the destination unfortunately there will be more cracks before you get there, you could argue that buying more can be a good thing however that brings me to my next points:
- Trade war: if this keeps accelerating there will be a recession someone needs to back down first and I do not see US or China showing weakness first. Now you can believe what you want to believe but in my view a recession will starve the markets and financial system and for the duration of a recession nothing will flourish but precious metals. That is the time to buy NMX because it would be at it’s lowest.
- With this amount of shares outstanding I see a consolidation coming in the future. That will be another entry point.
- With the shares moving into “strong hands” the power also shifts to strong hands, strong hands recognize good management and bad management from a mile away and that’s why they are “Strong” they will not put up with BS (example: MUX COO just quit a couple days ago, I had my finger on sell but the stock continued to grow like nothing happened- the COO probably did not perform SP so he probably got the option to quit or get fired, now that is strong management, have a performance evaluation)… when the strong hands take control is the time when this stock can double or more overnight, “strong hand” investment and management attracts even stronger investors. The sign that NMX didn’t get those strong investments in is exactly that week management with no credit and actually bad credit in their resumes. But that will change because the NMX Value is not fake and eventually strong hands will take control.
If you want to add or argue any points, please do so without attacking me or bashing me, these are my opinions and my gut feeling, you can change that by having a reply that makes sense…you can ask me for any point I made to back it up or you can google it yourself. Outcomes are all just opinions, no one ever actually know an outcome Positive or Negative…is just opinions…
BColdtimer wrote: LAC when they got derisked financially - Mar 29, 2017 - stock was trading at $1 (or $5 when consolidated later in the year) 46% of the value of the argentina project to LAC ( MC/NPV = 308M shares / $668M)
NMX - Financially derisked with more shares than we hoped for, netherless at the same stage as LAC was at a year ago. I'm using 931M fully diluted shares and $2.16B NPV. at 46% this would no put NMX stock at $1.07. Funny is that is about as high as it got since this share issuance announcement at the end of May 2018.
LAC has been working on there mine and what not since then, and now we are waiting for further commencement and work by NMX.
LAC has been basically been trading at $7.5 plus or minus a few 10 cents or so. At $7.50 LAC is trading at about 99% of its projects value (MC 88.5M CS @ $7.5) / $667.8M NPV)
NMX if all goes as plan, I would expect the stock price to migrate towards 100% value of the NPV of the project. This would put the stock price at $2.31 ( $2.16B x 99% / 931.4M fully diluted shares) as the mine development develops.
I'm not pumping it, not saying the stock will jump next week, next month or whenever, only commenting that if it was in the same stage as LAC is right now I would expect a share price of $2.31. We are not there right now, and that is self evident.
Almost a billion shares, I think I would think about a consolidation down the road. This is like the austrailian miner stocks billions of shares trading at 15 cents or so. seems ridiculous.
If and when NMX produces positive cash flow, I hope they buy back some of that streaming deal if possible. I hope they develop another mine from the cash flow becuase it is my understanding that is how a mining stock's share price really starts going up as there is no longer stock dilution issues, and as hinted earlier this month I hope years down the road, with the positive cash flow that NMX expands the processing plant (stage 3), but for all this to happen they have to get profitable to begin with.
Any way again in comparison with LAC - NMX immediate ceiling is $1.07.... with the potential to slowly migrate towards LAC current trading value which for NMX would be about $2.31.