RE:RE:Let's be objectiveMy sense is that unless NSU has something else in the hopper that is relatively advanced and can be finalized and announced in the next few days, LUN is likely to get this deal done in the C$5.20-5.30 range. (call it US$4.00). For those who are waiting for FCX to do something I would say do not get too excited. Remember, LUN and FCX have done business in the past and it was FCX that originally brought LUN to the table and gave them a sweetheart deal for the Timok UZ back in the Reservoir Minerals days. I could see a deal in which LUN acquires NSU, FCX waives it ROFR on the LZ and then strikes a deal subsequently with LUN regarding the LZ and some sort collaboration in the design of the UZ mine plan giving due consideration to it serving as a gateway to the LZ. RIO is out there as well, but I would not bet the house they come in as a white knight.
If I was LUN, I would have my professionals (bankers or lawyers) working on back channel communication to NSU to discuss a reasonable price for a supported deal. I'd also be talking with NSU's major shareholders, emphasizing the cash they would recieve and the opportunities available to them to re-invest the proceeds in solid base metal miners that have seen their equity prices hit alongside the price decline in base metals.
The next couple of weeks will be interesting. I believe there will be some additional money in a bid that is forthcoming, but not as much as some predict. This is just my guess based on personal deal experience in unrelated industries.