RE Sell-off Just doesn`t seem that likely to me. Sun Valley, Cormark and Haywood have had months of accumulating between $2.25 - $3.15 and have tied up a good portion of the float. Between the Lundins and those houses I would say 70% of the float is tied up alone. The remaining portion of shares went to the financiers of the bought deal recently (more of the usual suspects) so that moves the tied up float to 75%.
Just looking at the price action with the bids and asks it's pretty obvious to see there isn't room to build a significant position in this stock anymore if you're a institutional investor unless you're willing to pay more than $3.10 - $3.15 a share. For retail investors there's room for us to pick away and add at sub $3 or low $3's and that's what I've been doing.
So when you have retail anxious to pick up loose ends in the share price.. many investment houses who haven't even got a meaningful position in NES and 3 houses (Haywood, Cormark, Sun Valley) that happily average down below $3 - it is going to get very hard to get a hold of shares if you have not done so already.
The fact that these houses are also the best in the business in junior mining selection is even more encouraging. Cannacord and TD are alright but I've seen much better track records out of Haywood/Sun Valley and Cormark over the test of time.
So even if the share price were to sell off to the $2.80 level after the Resource Estimate which I am very confident will not happen.. who would be selling?
Cormark/Sun Valley/Haywood & The Lundins know what we have and would not be selling into a maiden 43-101 no matter the number since they are aware the magnitude of this deposit. So a couple retail investors dump.. maybe they're decent holders of stock.. let's say 50 retail at 10k shares each dump shares to the market (these are still decent sized retail holders)...
500k shares below $3 would get sucked up in less than a day on this stock.. now the buyers are happier to have averaged down again and the shares would be sucked up so sellers would need their head examined to come in the next day to dump more.
I've seen insitutions load up before 43-101's to be disappointed but I don't think this time is the case at all. I think the investment houses that have fun with these juniors and manipulate the share price realize when they're trying to manipulate an Andean Resources or Ventana or similarly a Newstrike (a deposit in the top 10 in the world).
These guys can try and save a penny or two by manipulating the price down in terms of accumulating shares but what are the 2 pennies you're gonna save worth when a major comes in and pays $1.50 premium and you're stuck with half a position since you were greedy to add. The time to add is now and if investors haven't done so I believe they'll pay up and handsomely.. I will happily add more as soon as I see a $2 in front of the share price and I'm already fully loaded - what does that tell you about people like Caliche and others who have been looking at this deposit for 2 years now and watching this story unfold.