RE:RE:PwC sees continuation of US$ 5 to 15 Billion Bio M&A Deals Nice view Noteable. The $5m to $15 m sweet spot discussion.
Additionally explaining they are looking for scientific opportunities, not necessarily financial.
Yesterday I had an unrelated ( to do with anything onc financial or similar), visit with a friend of mine.
He is ultra educated 3 master degrees. Retired school principal.
His daughter is a technical writer for a pharm company.
Hearing that,I migrated the conversation to ONC..
Gave him the point r form overview.
His first comment. " souods like an amazning opportunity" he was speaking clinically not investments.
He does not do any of his own investing.
His second comment, " it on average takes close to one billion $ , to bring products from laboratory, to approval"
That being as we have seen, various phase 1-2 trials FDA applications etc.
Biggest cost being the phase 3 , because of number of people required.
Looking beyind thst & specificly at ONC.
Both the Gobblet/ Roche/ CGAR & the expected FDA requests , to include biomarkers .....lean towards.
faster trials, less people ( the Panc trials unde CGAR , are expected to allow existing , completed " standard of care reults" in place of typical double blind.
Afterall, panc cancer has such a short life span/ survival rate, it would be almost cruel to subject trial patients to " maybe getting help"
and,as mentioned, while not yet formally disclosed, the accelerated approval opportunity certainly exists for the Gobblet cohurts that are advancing.
Assuming the FDA comes back with favourable recommendations, the MBc phase 3 trial could as well, lead directly into approval.
Wirh all of that said.
Trying to re- Center my point:
OnC has at this stage 2 phase 3 ready opportunities. Possibly an additional as mentioned in todays N.R. Plus progress with the anal cancer, also moving ahead fro its early studies.
Take over value? Without an endgame product not much to acquire.
With 2-3:obvious , plus mutiple use potential as an amunitherapy. oNC/ parareorep becomes very valuable.
Add- on the reduced phase 3 timing & oppotunities for quick approval, again the value goes up.
So? How much?
looking from low to high?
mangement has said historically, nothing under a $ billion will even be considered.
The MBc alone has been indicated as a $5 billion/ year opportunity.
id say, the $1billion low end is extremely conservative.
Keep in mind that number was discussed quite a few years ago.
Probably more like $3billion now.
regarding the many times mentioned $5b to $15 billion sweet spot?
keeping in mind, Pelas combination therapy opportunity to expand existing pattents, for the likes of tecentriq.
The in place opportunities of on going royaties from A.N.
The upside opportunity for Pelareorep....if approved for even one of the known cancer therapies is Well over a $5 billion price tag.
All 3 ?
Obviously much much more.
one billion $ on average to get from lab to market.
Oncolytics calls itself a company advancing towards registrational studies. Meaning & as we know they have weeded through the mutiple safety studies. Proved various M.O.A. And identified 2 biomarkers.
I truly can not & will not predict the upside buyout potential.
I do know it is a lot larger now , than it was a few years ago.
Today, one of a few mentioned milestones was announced.
yet, another opportunity for registration trial as mentioned in the P.R.
next important update. The much awaited FDA decisions.
THEN, negotiations can wrap up with some in place known costs etc for the MBc phase 3.
My guess?
partership first, with lots of eyes on a complete buyout.
my other running story...
today , end of day support.
yesterday was my guess 7/ 7 days in a row...or more.
watch for it again today.