OREA and NG's present action.Takeovers Panel faced with Cardinal chaos https://www.miningweekly.com/article/takeovers-panel-faced-with-cardinal-chaos-2020-11-02 Nov., 2020
PERTH (miningweekly.com) – The Australian Takeovers Panel has been left to muddle through the Cardinal Resources tussle, having now been approached by all the invested parties…. Just how much are Shandong and Nordgold prepare to go to get this prospective mine? Already at A$1.0 offer each on 538 mill shares + options? NG is using cash no public shares to offer. How many 100s of mills are they prepared to shell out?
Why does this matter? Because as part of the criteria for granting a FG mine permit NG have to be able to show assets to buildout the Montagne d’Or; approx. US$400 mill to pour. With around US 6-700 mill to buy and buildout the Cardinal Resource mine, NG would have to show their good for over a US $billion to aquire one and build out both mines.
Could they also then take on a bidding war for OREA’s 45% which is around 1.2 mill P&P oz and likely will grow with release of the NG ‘held’ 2018 infill drill results? Bidding has taken CR from around A$0.45 per share to now 1.0. and it is likely to go higher. China wants to increase its gold reserves globally so another bid is likely. Why is NG so interested with the new mines they already have and Montagne d’Or, unless they either don’t think the permit is likely or want to start building in Africa almost immediately, believing that FG may mean waiting at least another year to clear all admin hurdles.
Regardless, for OREA the biggest hurdle, again, is getting the permit for Montagne d’Or. A probable near zero present value for their potential FG mine would see a reevaluation of those inground 1.2 mill P&P+ (x US$1800 minus $800 AISC per oz; plus build out loan or royalty to cover 45% costs at about $180 mill). You do the oversimplified math but you get the idea compared to a today's $0.10 per share (forget needing to factor in any Maripa value).
Unfortunately, the Russians don’t seem in any rush to get the ESIA reports into the French for permit consideration; should be now. Too much on their plate to put this on the front burner. However, should the chaos continue in the US and globally the gold price could continue upwards. Thus, if the permit is granted in the first half of 2021, then long suffering CGT/OREA holders could be very happy, even if they don’t wish to hang around for a further energizing OREA 45% buyout or the impact of ongoing build out data into 2022 – 23.
GLTA - https://twitter.com/EarthsRare