RE:123buyholdhopeTdsb – Here goes and this is it. I will not write further on this company till we have news on Montagne d’Or.
If there is disagreement from others on what I write then please make sure that reasons are given and based rationally on actual news or data. No more ten second read bites about one’s emotionally responses to an argument read, or venting one’s disappointed at the price of the stock since one bought in, etc.
Nothing to hide here.
Investor 35+ years.
Retired - live off many past garnered stock dividends and pensions.
Hobby = speculation in precious and critical metals.
Record - suffered a lot more speculative losses (in terms of companies held) than wins, but several wins were, thank you Jesus moments (re $).
Approach – buy small lots – watch and then buy more and more on concrete company news arriving (not hype). Cull those that appear to be going nowhere e.g. drill, drill; no PEA, no significant public/private investment, no JV, BFS, etc., etc.
OREA is my major gold holding of 4. Number of other speculative entities in other metals.
Held for 8 years.
800,000 shares bought over the last 7 years. One of my largest speculative by share amount.
Ongoing holding thesis around – drill, results, PEA, other company shareholder emerging (NG, Sandstorm, IAG), Macron backing, JV, BFS, NG financing, etc.
My failure – did not understand the degree of change in French political backing of the project emerging in 2019.
Also, failed to recognize NG as a pure business (not JV partner) wanting out of Montagne d’Or by June 2020 (they read Macron, etc). NG went simply for damages. No interest in asking for license renewal (that was JV/OREA in court). NG did not wait for court decisions nor the upcoming FSC decision. NG decided by 2020 they would not submit the completed reports/apps for mine permit and for two years they used the ruse that they were waiting until the exploration licenses were renewed; – BS!
Personally, now underwater in OREA. Luckily set up portfolio over years to take in stride any such losses in speculation allocation.
My thesis in 2022 for holding OREA
IMO, gold mining in FG is dead. Read the tea leaves.
IMO, France/Macron will not move from their environmental stance and anti-deforestation pledge at COP 26; regardless of the Ukraine Russia outcome. In fact, in a macabre way this world chaos may in some way strength the environmental resolve and drive (may be wrong).
The recent Maripa move by OREA from IamG was to allow OREA to have the choice re., if, when, and how much they would put into any future project advancement – no more IamG deadlines. In return, IamG got out of FG gold and took OREA share lottery tickets (to add to their 9-10% holding).
IMO, any future moves re., Maripa will be based on what happens to Montagne d’Or; the renewal of the other exploration licenses in FG; Auplata’s challenge to their gold processor closing and major miners’ future moves in their own FG exploration sites, etc.
Today! – Mordashov has shot himself in the foot (or someone else we know did). His family holds 99%+ of Nordgold despite any financial gymnastics. He will find no sympathy in French courts. In fact, France may well nullify the F - R 1989 Investment Treaty on their own (or at least place the environmental clause in their retro actively – bye bye, NG damages). 4 weeks ago, I thought NG were in line for a large damage’s settlement from France; not now!
As I have suggested Montagne d’Or could well be confiscated by France. It’s a ‘hole to be’ in the ground. NG has gained no value to date and would be out around US$ 50-60 mill sunken costs over 6 or so years. Mordashov goes to court? - not worth it. Watch France tie him up for 5-8 years in French or Court of Arb’ then any award if made has to be paid (2-3 more years). Pointless business, so walk away. He tries it in Russian court who knows the outcome but bottom line France would still have Montagne d’Or for years.
Further, Montagne d'Or represents a perfect highly public French target for Macron in his election bid in April. Saving the rainforest at the same time taking down about the richest Russian oligarch around with choas and mayhem building in Ukraine. Macron has present trouble with some environmentalist groups so can you say political gain?
However, such action legally harms an ally’s entity. The CAD OREA has done nothing wrong and would be unjustifiably punished in such a confiscation. however, you cant' take 55% of a land based project and leave the rest when you already know it is dead on arrival. So, the simple solution is to pay OREA e.g., from 1-10% of their 45% value (US35- $350 mill).
If this does not happen, then OREA is looking at taking NG to court who may still be belatedly in the process of suing France. You are talking years and millions in costs to OREA.
Final thesis if France does not confiscate then OREA splits the company leaving 'OREA' (with the damaged name) with both the Montagne d’Or unresolved issue and Maripa with its unclear, if any, future. Old OREA creates a new shareholder spinoff around the Suriname project in a potentially rising gold market. Then as usual its all about exploration news to drive interest and price.
Hope this clarifies on several fronts.
See you when we hear some real Montagne d'Or news.
GLTA -
https://twitter.com/EarthsRare