RE:Value?????Hello TSB – I am not sure how we work out what someone might pay for this project or how the traders on the market will value the company as various catalysts arrive in 2023. However, I like to look at it this way based on known public information.
The old BFS identified approx.., 2.75 mill oz P&P and 2 mill resource all of which now belongs to OREA (excluding the US$75 mill or so to be paid to NG dependent on any future mine permit approval – if it's a project sale, I don’t know the impact of that agreement nor the impact of any royalty agreements with Euro Res and Sandstorm, I believe).
However, I am in the camp that believes with NG’s 2021 project assessment at US$8 + billion, even allowing for exaggeration to pad their 2020 court claim against France, such a claim also wil I think have depended on some serious upgrade in oz due to 2018 infill drilling results that were not released by NG.
So, jet’s be conservative and say that this increases P&P to 3 mill oz. Then, let’s take the old BFS AISC costs at 850 per oz and say today $1000 with a conservative gold calculation based on $1600 (not past US$1250). This gives you today a P&P (lets work only reserve and leave out resource oz) inground profit value of US$1.8 bill (I think if my math is correct) now held by a company around US$20 mill company (90X).
How might traders and the herd react to this data based calculation?
In the past we have seen P&P go for a buyout price in the range of around US$75 to a crazy (Fronteer) around $400 per oz. Say OREA might get US$150 for the P&P (never mind a mine design, added resource oz + potential future exploration oz; note - Columbus Gold in their final exploration act as manager identified gold 75 metres below the deepest hole drilled for the BFS pit and at least another 400m beyond strike).
Let’s then say that OREA goes to 250 mill shares (further dilution for funding). We have a back of the matchbox share buyout price of US$450 mill (minus NG 75 mill, plus misc., costs e.g., royalty payoff, buyers mine buildout calculations, etc.). Others can work sp out or sub in their own numbers for AISC, etc.
Yes, all just fun and games and numbers for holders, but again, 1. if that new BFS indicates changes as I think it will and 2. France gives just an inkling that they will in some way allow this mine in the future (e.g., initially drops their SC challenge to exploration licenses), even a left field buyout arrives, then watch out below as this company gets several reratings by all the presently missing newsletters and analysts, etc.
GLTA -
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