Ovintiv Inc OVV

No FCF projections for 2023

[clamlinguine]

I can't find any fcf guidance for 2023 in their new presentation. They provide the worst presentations that I've seen in the business, and they are getting worse.

[clamlinguine]

Here's what I think their FCF projection should be for 2023. I will write it down here so I dont have to recalculate it all the time. So they predict $299 mil of shareholder returns  qtr 1 in 2023 (238 buybacks, 61 divys). I will round off to $300 million per qtr and multiply by 4 to get a full year FCF of $1.2 billion at what looks like an average WTI of 77 and 2.75 HH gas in qtr 1

[clamlinguine]

Make that 23.9 %. It's 25% at $37.2 US/share.

[clamlinguine]

I figure at these prices $68 and $2.50 we are looking at annualized fcf of over 20% thanks to the share price drop.

[clamlinguine]

There's a mistake in my initial calculation. FCF projection is 61+238+238= $537 for Q1 2023 at 75 wti and $3 gas. This would yield a 21.5% fcf. Today's $66 wti and $2.35 gas, with cf sensitivity of $75 million per wti dollar and $100 million per 25 cents HH gas, with a $34 share price....fcf is 14%. $2.137 billion yearly fcf at $75 and $3....subtract $9 X $75 mil for 66 wti....subtract 2