RE: RE: Raymond James: Outperform and $2.20 target Your are right that any number of factors can continue to propel Pd upward.
Currency hasn't been one of them, yet, as the weakening Rand has been one of SA miner's saving graces, in that they can pay expenses (labor) less relative to what they get for the PGM metals.
Still, as you say, it appears to be a very interesting year ahead for Pd. Specifics to watch --
1) Amplats -- Will they risk going through with the closures / layoffs and can they do it without inciting AMCU?
2) SA Wage negotiations -- Implats and Lonmin wage agreements expire in Q2, Amplats in Q3; AMCU has not shown any interest in signing on to collective bargaining.
3) SA coal strike -- If not resolved, it could cause electricity disruption like the load shedding as in 2008; if resolved it might empower NUM and AMCU even more with the message that wildcat strikes are the way to go. Either way, Eskom is operating near peak capacity as they approach a higher demand season and have already requested that large miners cut back usage.
4) China smog -- Will China implement sweeping regulatory reform WRT emmision standards, and/or offer incentives to buy newer CC equipped cars.
Head winds -- European recession talk is always a PGM head wind, even when the fundamental suggest it shouldn't be so important to Pd. But even if that flares up again, there should be enough momentum and potential for disruption on the fundamentals side to keep PGMs, especially palladium, riding high.