Food for thought.......This is probably my last post on this board, as events in the PPony-Cnq deal start to wind down and come to a permanent conclusion. As i don't expect "another" offer to come into play for several reasons, the most important being this was probably an "mutal agreement" within the tight confines of CNQ & PPony entourage or those that control both companies. Therefore, PPony's fate was sealed even before ANY other possible viable options were even considered or brought to the table. Your classical insider deal where the main players who have the most to gain ( ie Cnq & cnq mgmt/bod along with Ppony insiders here) come out as big winners and where a group of s/h (ie Pony s/h in this case) get the big shaft as being the biggest losers. In a normal circumstance, the mgmt/bod of any company would be looking out not only for their own interest's (as this is normal & understadable) but also those of their s/h. Kelt Exploration being a good recent example of this attitude, as the could have EASILY done what Ppony did, but they didn't choose to. In the Cnq-PPony agreement (which i dont even consider as a deal this was really an "understanding" between two controlling parties), "fiduciary duty" was thrown completely out the widow and only "certain" interest's were looked after. If there's to be ANY improved offer here, it will only come at the willingness of CNQ as i don't believe ANY other ep will undercut Cnq or create a competive/unstable, tension filled environment among thmesleves. It's really a damn shame things ended up as they did as there was so much potential here.
As my rant comes to an end also, i'll leave you with this thought to show where things stood, how things are developing and where things COULD have gone........
If ONE were to take things into perspective, then one would need something in order to compare it to to gain any reasonable perspective. Therefore i'll take Storm Resources to make my case and to show others what could have been. Storm as some of you might know, is practically a close neighbour of PPony operating some assets slightly to the east of Pony's properties. Like i said a VERY CLOSE neighbour, so BEAR that in mind when you absorb the information & reflect. As the Pony, Storm's production mix is similar to Pony's, 80% dry gas 20% liquids. Production numbers are also inline in comparison to debt evels. Storm has 25K/boepd with ~$185M in debt comapred to Pony's 50K/boepd with a ~$350M debt load. So even though Storm only has half the debt that Pony had, they also have only 1/2 the production Pony had. In other words, when taking those factors into account they are pretty much a mirror image of each other. Same prodcution numbers, same production mix and the same location.
Where things go off the reservation is here.......the valuations. PPony was "acquired" by CNQ for ~$460M or less than 10K/boepd. As we speak, Storm is being valued at ~$375M or ~16k/boepd. If the path of logic is taken, then when all the above things are considerd, there should NOT have been such a HUGE discrepancy or at the very least a sale of the company at those values. I won't even get into a discussion with the HUGE difference between PPony & Storm when it comes to 2P reserves, i won't even make it a factor to keep things simple & into perspective. When one thinks about it, IF PPony was given even close to FAIR valuations or considerations, no one in their right mind would have sold the company for less than $2 per share.
So friends, i'll leave anyone reading this board or any past or current s/h of the company some food for thought. Hopefully it will enlighten some of you.
Good luck to all......