Painted Pony Pete Ltd PDPYF

Future AECO prices

[Oldnagger]

Google AECO-C PRICE - AER
very interesting read on past present and future effects on aeco due to pipeline changes and regulatory changes, 
Also explanation of effects of associated gas on pricing as well as Oil sands demand , Power demand , and Kitimat LNG demand

[Squint1]

I posted the NAV's earlier using Dec. 31 reserve values.  AECO prices have increased significantly since then.  GLJ used $2.35 for the 2021 AECO price in calculating the reserve values at year end.  The Aug 24 future strip averaged $2.819 for 2021 by comparison.  That is a 20% increase in prices and revenues and an even greater increase in cash flows and NPV of the reserves

[Oldnagger]

Thanks for pointing that out.

[Oldnagger]

 I understand from the reserves report (2019) that  the after tax value (NPV 10) equated to  $ 2496967000  based on a nat gas netback of 0.43 per mscf.  If we add on another $ 0.43 then we double the reserves value . The effect of the increase in reserves value on per share value is even greater due to debt leverage $ 28.00 per share  (40 times the offering

[Squint1]

I was referring to 2021 prices only...but there is an uplift over the whole long range forecast of prices.  A look at the current CME future prices vs. those used by GLJ would give it more precision.  The most important point of it is that this is for 2021 - next year.  The improvement is just around the corner.  The banks should see this.  They should not force the

[Oldnagger]

I hear your concerns with my quick anaysis.My point was to highlight the tremendous value that we are at risk of losing. However as long as rig counts stay at such low levels PDP inventories are depleting at a horrendous  rate . I would guess at least 40 bcf per day and probably more like 60 bsf per day . It will probably be years before drilling levels  increase enough to replace the